Report published September 8, 2026
Pulse on ASEAN: Divergent Fortunes – UBS Equity Research
UBS · September 8, 2026
ASEAN equity markets display divergent fortunes: UBS maintains an Attractive view on Singapore and Malaysia driven by strong growth and 'Value-Up' corporate governance reforms. Ratings on Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines remain Neutral amid policy uncertainty, higher interest rates, and macro headwinds.
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Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Singapore and Malaysia are UBS's preferred ASEAN equity markets (rated Attractive), supported by robust economic expansion and corporate 'Value-Up' initiatives.
- 2.Indonesian equities were downgraded from Attractive to Neutral due to macroeconomic headwinds, policy uncertainty, and lackluster earnings.
- 3.Neutral ratings are maintained on Thailand and the Philippines due to execution risks, structural growth constraints, and restrictive monetary policy.
Table of Contents
- Performance
- Developments
- Positioning
- Major ASEAN markets' performance
- Singapore (Attractive): Strong economy, robust earnings, value crystallization
- Malaysia (Attractive): Stable macro and Value-Up underpin our constructive view
- Indonesia (Neutral): Rebound on relief, not rerating
- Thailand (Neutral): Improving fundamentals, but execution remains key
- Philippines (Neutral): Higher-for-Longer monetary policy weighs on market momentum
- Global asset class preferences definitions
Report data
Major ASEAN markets' performance (YTD and QTD performance in local currencies in %)
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI ASEAN Index YTD return | 13% | Gain in USD terms year to date. |
| Malaysia 2Q26 GDP growth | 6.0% | Accelerated year-over-year driven by exports, domestic demand, and investments. |
| Straits Times Index P/E ratio | 17.4 x | Trading over one standard deviation above its 10-year average of 13.7x. |
| Philippine BSP policy rate | 5.0% | BSP hiked by 25bps, bringing cumulative tightening to 75bps since April 2026. |
| Philippine 2Q26 GDP growth | 2.3% | Weakest pace since 2021 due to deceleration in construction and soft domestic demand. |
Reports in this series
Pulse on ASEAN is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 8, 2026.
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