Report published August 17, 2026
Positioning Beyond US Dollar Resilience – UBS Research Report
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- UBS
- Report date
- August 17, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 14, 2026
Authors / editors: Mark Haefele, Daisy Tseng, Teck Leng Tan, Themis Themistocleous
Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
UBS expects eventual US dollar weakness driven by structural fiscal deficits and moderating US macroeconomic data. Investors are advised to position into high-yielding currencies, Chinese yuan, gold, broad commodities, and Japanese equities.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Softening US economic data and structural fiscal deficits create headwinds for the US dollar, reducing the likelihood of near-term Fed rate hikes.
- 2.Investors should capture yield via high-yielding currencies (GBP, NOK, AUD, NZD) and anticipate continued Chinese yuan strength toward 6.50 per USD by June.
- 3.Broad commodities and gold remain constructive due to central bank demand, Super El Niño agricultural supply risks, AI-driven metals demand, and geopolitical energy support.
Table of Contents
- From the studio
- Thought of the day
- What to watch: 17 August
- Caught our attention
- Market update
- Global asset class preferences definitions
- Appendix
Report data
Market update — as of August 14, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Fed September rate hike implied probability | 30% | Fed funds futures scale back hike probabilities following weaker retail sales and moderating inflation. |
| US 30-year Treasury auction yield | 5.216% | US government auction yield reflecting investor demands for greater compensation amid growing deficits. |
| US retail sales month-over-month change | -0.6% | First monthly decline since October 2025 and biggest drop since May of previous year. |
| China annual trade surplus | 1.2 USD trillion | Recycling of USD surplus provides scope for yuan appreciation. |
| USDCNY forecast | 6.50 USDCNY | Target projection for USDCNY by June next year. |
Reports in this series
UBS House View - Daily Europe is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 17, 2026.
Part of the UBS House View - Daily Europe series — view all 3 editions
Looking for the latest edition? Daily Europe en 1665649 (Aug 28, 2026)
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Fed September rate hike implied probability: 30 % (2026-08)
- US 30-year Treasury auction yield: 5.216 % (2026-08)
- US retail sales month-over-month change: -0.6 % (2026-07)
- China annual trade surplus: 1.2 USD trillion (2026)
- USDCNY forecast: 6.50 USDCNY (2027-06) · Source: UBS