Report published September 28, 2026

Paul Donovan's Daily Audio: Camels Through the Eyes of Fishhooks – UBS Research

UBS · September 28, 2026

The US and China agreed to lower tariffs on a modest USD 30bn of bilateral goods, which amounts to only about two months of current tariff avoidance. Meanwhile, crude oil moved higher amid Middle East tensions, posing potential dilemmas for central banks balancing oil-driven inflation against growth.

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Key Takeaways

1.China and the US agreed to reduce tariffs on USD 30bn of each other's goods, a negligible sum that represents roughly two months of implied tariff avoidance.
2.Crude oil rose following stalled negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia; interest rate expectations may track oil if central banks act to curb non-oil growth.
3.The ECB faces questions on whether strict adherence to its 2% inflation target could lead to restrictive, recessionary policies as rates sit at the top of the neutral range.

Report data

Listen to today's 28 September update

Metric	Estimate	Context
Agreed tariff reduction value	30.0 USD bn	Value of bilateral products on which the US and China agreed to lower tariffs.
Tariff avoidance equivalence period	2.0 months	The USD 30bn tariff reduction represents about two months of implied trade avoidance.
ECB inflation target	2.0%	ECB target for inflation referenced in relation to restrictive rate policy.