Report published August 28, 2026
UBS Daily Update: Markets Look to Jackson Hole Amid Rising Treasury Yields and Policy Uncertainty
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- UBS
- Report date
- August 28, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 28, 2026
Authors / editors: Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, Mark Haefele, Daisy Tseng, Andrew Dubinsky, Leslie Falconio, Kazumasa Ishii
Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
US Treasuries faced renewed pressure ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole address as sticky inflation and less forward guidance keep policy uncertainty high. UBS expects the Fed to hold rates steady through 2026 before easing in 2027, recommending portfolio diversification into global equities, short/medium-duration bonds, gold, and commodities.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's less-guided approach to monetary policy has increased uncertainty in rates markets ahead of Jackson Hole, contributing to an upward move in long-dated US Treasury yields.
- 2.UBS maintains a base case that US inflation will gradually ease, keeping the Fed on hold for the remainder of 2026 before potential rate cuts in H1 2027.
- 3.European bank lending accelerated in July; UBS rates European Financials as Attractive, benefiting from solid loan demand, resilient net interest income, and reasonable valuations (~11x 2027 P/E).
Table of Contents
- From the studio
- Thought of the day
- What to watch: 31 August
- Caught our attention
- Market update
- Appendix
Report data
Market update — as of August 28, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US Core PCE Inflation (YoY) | 3.3% | Fed's preferred inflation gauge, exceeding 3% for the eighth consecutive month. |
| US 10-year Treasury Yield | 4.68% | Yield moved 4 bps higher since Monday's close ahead of Jackson Hole. |
| US 30-year Treasury Yield | 5.2% | Yield rose 3 bps since Monday's close. |
| Eurozone Lending to Non-Financial Companies (YoY) | 4.4% | Accelerated from 4.0% in June, marking the first full month since the ECB rate hike. |
| Eurozone Lending to Households (YoY) | 3.1% | Increased from 3.0% in June. |
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UBS House View - Daily US is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 28, 2026.
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- US Core PCE Inflation (YoY): 3.3 % (July 2026) · Source: BEA
- US 10-year Treasury Yield: 4.68 % (2026-08-28) · Source: Bloomberg
- US 30-year Treasury Yield: 5.2 % (2026-08-28) · Source: Bloomberg
- Eurozone Lending to Non-Financial Companies (YoY): 4.4 % (July 2026) · Source: ECB
- Eurozone Lending to Households (YoY): 3.1 % (July 2026) · Source: ECB
Securities
Themes
Regions
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