Report published August 17, 2026
UBS Investment Research: Holland Days – Summer Market Calm, Fed Policy, and 2026 Macro Outlook
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- UBS
- Report date
- August 17, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Jason Draho (Head of Asset Allocation, CIO Americas)
Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Market calm is prevailing during August, but historical parallels to the summer of 2023 suggest an eventual Fed pause and strong EPS growth could propel equity and bond markets higher into year-end.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Current summer market calm is likely to persist until late August catalysts (NVIDIA earnings and Jackson Hole), keeping the path of least resistance for risk assets upward.
- 2.Macro and policy conditions echo summer 2023: robust earnings growth (consensus EPS up to >26%) and an expected Fed pause on rate hikes should support a continuation of equity rallies into year-end.
- 3.Treasuries are positioned to benefit as yields decline once the Federal Reserve confirms an extended pause in interest rate hikes.
Table of Contents
- Holland days
- Global asset class preferences definitions
- Appendix
- Risk information
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) | 14.25 index points | Lowest level of the year reached on Friday during mid-August. |
| S&P 500 EPS Growth Consensus | 26% | Bottoms-up EPS growth consensus rose from ~13% in early January to over 26% after 2Q earnings season. |
| US GDP Growth | 2% | Expected annualized growth rate for the rest of 2026. |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield Change | 50 bps | Rise in yield driven by shifting Fed funds rate expectations. |
Reports in this series
Blog is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 17, 2026.
Part of the Blog series — view all 5 editions
Looking for the latest edition? Blog en 1666096 (Sep 7, 2026)
Document Preview
Access the Full Report
Get unlimited access to institutional research reports. Create an account to get started.
Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Cboe Volatility Index (VIX): 14.25 index points (August 2026)
- S&P 500 EPS Growth Consensus: 26 % (FY 2026)
- US GDP Growth: 2 % (2H 2026)
- US 10-Year Treasury Yield Change: 50 bps (YTD 2026)
Securities
Themes
Regions
Related Reports
Germany: AfD Emerges as Largest Party in Saxony-Anhalt
September 7, 2026
Strong US Jobs Data Likely to Tip the Balance for the Fed
September 7, 2026
Paul Donovan's Daily Audio: Monetary Policy and Forever Wars
September 7, 2026
Dividend Screener
September 7, 2026
1H26 Results: Diverging Growth, Stronger Shareholder Returns, and Selective Opportunities
September 7, 2026