Report published September 24, 2026
Higher Yields Need Not Derail Markets: UBS Daily US House View
UBS · September 24, 2026
Despite 10-year US Treasury yields topping 5.1% following strong US composite PMI data, UBS views the macro environment as constructive for markets. Resilient economic activity, strong corporate earnings growth, and opportunities in fixed income support further equity gains and portfolio income generation.
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Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Fed policy tightening is likely to be less aggressive than futures markets price in, with UBS projecting a December hike followed by a hold throughout 2027.
- 2.Higher bond yields offer attractive portfolio income opportunities in short-duration bonds, tactical medium-to-long duration high-quality bonds, and medium-tenor investment grade credit.
- 3.Resilient economic activity and AI investments support solid corporate earnings, with forecast S&P 500 earnings growth of 25% in 2026 and 14% in 2027.
Table of Contents
- Thought of the day
- What to watch: 25 September
- Caught our attention
- Market update
Report data
Market update — as of September 24, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 5.12% | Topped 5.1% for the first time since 2007 |
| S&P Global US Flash Composite PMI | 58.4 index points | Strongest expansion in private-sector activity since July 2021 |
| S&P 500 earnings growth forecast | 25% | Driven by solid economic activity and AI investment tailwinds |
| Gold price forecast | 5400 USD/oz | Supported by central bank buying and reserve diversification |
| 10-year French vs German government bond yield spread | 110 bps | Widest spread since July 2012 due to French fiscal deficits and election concerns |
Reports in this series
UBS House View - Daily US is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 24, 2026.
Part of the UBS House View - Daily US series — view all 22 editions
Looking for the latest edition? Daily US en 1667847 (Oct 12, 2026)
- Sep 17Daily US en 1666676
- Sep 18Daily US en 1666783
- Sep 21Daily US en 1666847
- Sep 22Daily US en 1666915
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