Report published September 24, 2026

UBS Global Forecasts: Macroeconomic Projections & Cross-Asset Outlook (September 2026)

UBS · September 24, 2026

UBS CIO's weekly Global Forecasts report provides comprehensive economic growth, inflation, policy rate, fixed income, currency, commodity, and equity market targets across developed and emerging economies through 2027. Major projections include US real GDP of 2.2% in 2026E, S&P 500 reaching 8,400 by mid-2027, and Gold reaching $5,400/oz by September 2027.

Read the full report

Read the remaining 4 pages

View Report Sign in

Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.US real GDP growth is projected at 2.2% in 2026E and 2.0% in 2027E, alongside CPI inflation moderating from 3.4% in 2026E to 2.3% in 2027E.
2.The Federal Reserve policy target rate is projected to rise to 4.13% by Dec 2026 through Jun 2027 before declining to 3.88% by Sep 2027.
3.The S&P 500 is forecast to reach 8,100 by December 2026 and 8,400 by June 2027, supported by EPS rising to $350 in 2026E and $400 in 2027E.

Economic growth & inflation
Target rates overview
Interest rates
Credit spreads
Major currencies
Emerging market currencies
Commodities
Equity Markets
Real estate markets

Report data

Central banks Target rates overview

Metric	Estimate	Context
World Real GDP Growth	3.2 % YoY	Global economic real GDP growth forecast for 2026 following 3.5% in 2025.
US Real GDP Growth	2.2 % YoY	US real GDP growth forecast for 2026E after 2.1% in 2025.
Fed Target Rate	4.13%	Forecast Federal Reserve policy rate target at end-Dec 2026 compared to 3.75% current.
USD 10Y Treasury Yield	4.50%	US 10-year Treasury yield forecast down from 5.11% current.
Gold Price	5,400 USD/oz	Gold spot price forecast from 4,288 currently to 5,400 by Sep 2027.

Source: Haver, CEIC, National Statistic, UBS; Bloomberg, UBS; Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, UBS; SIX Financial Information, UBS. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.