Report published September 29, 2026
The Fundamentals of AI Infrastructure Supply and Demand: UBS Sector Report
UBS · September 29, 2026
The semiconductor compute deficit remains as acute as in late 2022 because exponential AI model improvements and token deflation continue to stimulate massive demand. Physical limitations in wafer fabrication, power, and equipment deployment will keep infrastructure supply tight for several years, supporting high returns across enabling-layer hardware.
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Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The AI semiconductor compute deficit remains as tight today as during ChatGPT 3.5's release in November 2022 due to rapid model progress and token demand outpacing supply additions.
- 2.Jevons paradox is actively driving structural AI growth, as declining per-token costs trigger disproportionate token consumption increases across agentic and open-source workloads.
- 3.Three primary bottlenecks restrict the AI infrastructure buildout—wafers, wattage, and capital—compounded by a multi-year lead time required for semiconductor equipment and fab capacity additions.
Table of Contents
- Our view
- AI selection list
- Managing the most complex supply chain in the world
- Nobody believed Sam Altman, and nobody moves as fast as Jensen Huang
- One of the first steps in a long complex process
- Front-end semiconductor manufacturers
Report data
Fig. 6: Hyperscaler vs. semiconductor capex 2021 to 2026 (Semiconductor capex lags significantly) — as of September 23, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| AI Token Price Change | -40.0% | Broader AI token prices declined by 40% while consumption more than tripled. |
| AI Token Consumption | 3.0 x | Total token consumption has more than tripled as prices fell. |
| ASML EUV Tool Shipments | 60.0 systems | ASML EUV shipments expected to increase from 45 systems in 2025 to 60 in 2026, at least 80 in 2027, and ~110 in 2028. |
| Global Memory Capacity Growth | 15-22% | Expected annual capacity growth rate for global memory between 2026 and 2028. |
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