Report published September 29, 2026

Financial Capital Navigator: UBS Global Bank Capital & Subordinated Debt Strategy (September 2026)

UBS · September 29, 2026

UBS CIO's Financial Capital Navigator monitors valuation views, recent issuances, and structural developments across subordinated bank and insurance debt (AT1, Tier 2, RT1, and hybrid bonds). The report notes weekly spread widening led by AT1s and highlights attractive relative value opportunities across EUR and USD Tier 2 paper.

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Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Subordinated European bank bonds experienced volatility over the past week, tracking the US 10-year Treasury, with AT1 yields approaching their 12-month highs.
2.Credit spread widening was notably more pronounced in AT1 debt (+13 bps over the week) compared to Tier 2 bonds (+7 bps).
3.Erste Bank announced a tender offer to acquire up to an additional 26% of Erste Bank Poland, while maintaining a group CET1 ratio comfortably above 14.2%.

Highlighted research
Highlighted education notes
Current view on Financial capital
Recent new issues
Changes to bond recommendations
RT1 bonds overview
Hybrid bonds overview
Dated Tier 2 bonds overview
Issuers mentioned in this report
Introduction to Financial Capital
Methodology

Report data

Attractive rated EUR bonds — as of September 29, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
AT1 bond spread change	13 bps	Spread widening over the week in subordinated European bank bonds
Tier 2 bond spread change	7 bps	Spread widening over the week in subordinated European Tier 2 bank bonds
Erste Bank target Polish tender stake	26%	Intention to acquire up to an additional 26% of Erste Bank Poland, increasing current 49% stake
Erste Bank projected CET1 ratio	14.2%	Group CET1 ratio maintained above this level following transaction
Julius Baer capital add-on penalty	250 CHF million	FINMA penalty capital add-on, implying CET1 requirement of 9.4%