Report published September 24, 2026
EURSEK: Higher Global Rates Weigh on the Krona – UBS FX Strategy Report
UBS · September 24, 2026
Despite resilient domestic economic fundamentals and a hawkish tone from the Riksbank, EURSEK remains elevated due to rising global yields and Fed tightening expectations. UBS maintains a neutral view on the SEK, forecasting EURSEK to decline gradually to 10.60 by September 2027 as global rate pressures ease.
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Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Global interest rate dynamics and low-yielding status continue to weigh on the Swedish krona despite resilient domestic growth.
- 2.The Riksbank is expected to remain on hold at 1.75% through year-end, while the ECB is anticipated to hike rates in December.
- 3.UBS maintains its EURSEK forecasts pointing to gradual SEK appreciation: 11.00 for Dec 2026, 10.90 for Mar 2027, 10.70 for Jun 2027, and 10.60 for Sep 2027.
Table of Contents
- A more hawkish Riksbank offers limited support
- Investment prospects
- Global Asset Class Preference
- CIO Forecast- EURSEK
- EURSEK broke through resistance levels as global yields make new highs
- Higher US yields have driven EURSEK higher
Report data
CIO Forecast- EURSEK — as of September 24, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Riksbank Policy Rate | 1.75% | Riksbank policy rate held unchanged at its September meeting. |
| EURSEK Spot Rate | 11.3 SEK per EUR | Current spot exchange rate as of report date. |
| EURSEK Forecast Dec 2026 | 11.0 SEK per EUR | UBS CIO forecast for EURSEK at December 2026. |
| EURSEK Forecast Mar 2027 | 10.9 SEK per EUR | UBS CIO forecast for EURSEK at March 2027. |
| EURSEK Forecast Jun 2027 | 10.7 SEK per EUR | UBS CIO forecast for EURSEK at June 2027. |
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