Report published September 24, 2026
EURNOK: Krone Carries On – UBS FX Strategy Research
UBS · September 24, 2026
The Norwegian krone remains UBS's preferred G10 currency against the euro, backed by the highest yield in the G10, a hawkish Norges Bank, and elevated energy export prices. EURNOK is projected to decline steadily from 10.80 to 10.50 by September 2027.
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Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Norwegian krone offers the most attractive carry profile in the G10, supported by a hawkish Norges Bank and high energy prices.
- 2.Both Norges Bank and the ECB are expected to hike rates one more time, preserving favorable rate differentials for the krone.
- 3.EURNOK is forecast to drift lower toward 10.50 by mid-to-late 2027, with support at 10.73 and key resistance near 11.30.
Table of Contents
- The case for carry remains intact
- Investment considerations
- NOK is the highest yielder in the G10
Report data
NOK is the highest yielder in the G10: Central Bank policy rate and end 2026 policy rate expectation — as of September 24, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Norges Bank Policy Rate | 4.50% | Policy rate after 25bps hike at September meeting |
| EURNOK Spot Rate | 10.8 rate | Spot rate as of 24 September 2026 |
| EURNOK Forecast Dec 2026 | 10.7 rate | End of Q4 2026 forecast |
| EURNOK Forecast Mar 2027 | 10.6 rate | End of Q1 2027 forecast |
| EURNOK Forecast Jun 2027 | 10.5 rate | End of Q2 2027 forecast |
Reports in this series
CIO View is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 24, 2026.
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