Report published September 25, 2026
EM Credit Navigator: EM Chemicals – UBS Credit Strategy Analysis
UBS · September 25, 2026
The Middle East conflict has created a divergence across emerging market chemical credits, benefiting Asian and Latin American petrochemical producers through wider spreads while impairing CEEMEA issuers. UBS sees attractive opportunities in select senior and perpetual subordinated bonds from Alpek, Orbia, and PTTGC, and recommends holding restructured debt in Braskem and Braskem Idesa.
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Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Middle East conflict caused regional divergence: petrochemical producers in Asia and Latin America benefited from wider spreads and unaffected feedstock, whereas CEEMEA issuers suffered from trade route disruptions and higher input costs.
- 2.UBS upgraded CIO credit outlooks for PTTGC, Alpek, Braskem, Braskem Idesa, and Orbia from Deteriorating to Stable due to earnings improvements.
- 3.UBS identifies attractive value in senior notes of Alpek (3.25% 2031) and Orbia (2.875% SLN 2031), and PTTGC's 6.5% subordinated perpetual note callable in 2030.
Table of Contents
- Investment views
- How to position
- Issuer views
- Asia
- CEEMEA
- LatAm
Report data
Table 1 - EM chemicals instruments offering value — as of September 25, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| PTTGC Gross Refining Margin | 16.2 USD/bbl | Surged from USD 4.4/bbl in 1H25 buoyed by crude oil price increases. |
| PTTGC Adjusted Net Leverage | 3.0 x | Declined significantly from 9.2x in FY25 as earnings rebounded. |
| SABIC Adjusted EBITDA | 7.5 SAR bn | Down 21% y/y to approximately USD 2bn due to volume drops driven by trade disruptions. |
| Alpek Total Debt / Trailing 12-Month EBITDA | 2.7 x | Decreased from 4.0x in March and 4.3x in December 2025. |
| Orbia EBITDA Margin | 19.9% | Expanded 460 bps year-over-year from 15.3% in 2Q25. |
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