Report published September 8, 2026

China's August Exports Held Firm: UBS Macroeconomic & Trade Analysis

UBS · September 8, 2026

China's August exports expanded 24.9% y/y and imports rose 28.2% y/y, powered largely by the global technology and semiconductor cycle. The monthly trade surplus widened to USD 119bn, supporting UBS's view that full-year export growth will reach the high teens despite persistent geopolitical and tariff tensions.

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Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.China's exports rose 24.9% y/y in August, led by massive tech exports including integrated circuits (+129.8% y/y) and computer accessories (+76.5% y/y).
2.Imports expanded 28.2% y/y driven primarily by semiconductor chip imports, though rising import value was predominantly driven by prices rather than volumes.
3.China's monthly trade surplus widened to USD 119bn, bringing the 8-month goods trade surplus with the US to USD 199.8bn despite renewed tariff escalation.

Export strength continued amid the tech upswing
Tech also drove import strength
The trade surplus widened
Export levels should remain high despite moderating growth
Global asset class preferences definitions
Risk information

Report data

Key figures extracted from this report

Metric	Estimate	Context
China exports growth	24.9 % y/y	China export growth in August against 26% consensus
China year-to-date export growth	19.3 % y/y	China YTD export growth through August
China export growth to US	34.4 % y/y	Supported by a low base
US share of China's total exports	10.5%	Recovered from a trough of about 8% in 2Q25, but well below 15% in 2024
Integrated circuit export growth	129.8 % y/y	Together with computer accessories contributed about 11 percentage points to export growth