Can Gold's Rebound Continue

UBS classifies the recent gold price crash as a mid-cycle reset and maintains a bullish outlook for 2026 with a price target of USD 6,200/oz. Key drivers include two expected Fed rate cuts and robust central bank and ETF demand.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The recent extreme volatility and 9% price drop in gold is viewed as a technical reset rather than a shift in long-term fundamentals.
• 2.UBS remains bullish on gold for 2026, targeting a price of USD 6,200/oz by September 2026, supported by Fed rate cuts and central bank demand.
• 3.Central bank demand remains a structural driver, with UBS increasing its 2026 demand forecast to 950 metric tons.

Table of Contents

• Key message
• 01 Gold's "flash crash" has complicated its historic rally
• 02 We view recent moves as a reset rather than regime change
• 03 We remain confident that gold will climb in 2026
• New this week
• One liner
• Did you know?
• Investment view
• Non-Traditional Assets
• Risk information

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