Report published September 29, 2026

APAC FX: Challenging Global Backdrop – UBS FX Strategy Analysis

UBS · September 29, 2026

Asia Pacific currencies face a challenging macro backdrop of elevated oil prices, higher US yields, and broad USD resilience, reinforcing a bifurcated regime. Economies with strong trade surpluses (KRW, TWD) and policy-anchored frameworks (CNY, SGD, AUD) should continue to outperform energy-deficit currencies (INR, THB, PHP, IDR).

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Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The 'leaders stay leaders' Asia FX regime remains intact as high oil prices, elevated US yields, and broad USD strength persist.
2.Surplus economies (TWD, KRW) and policy-anchored currencies (CNY, SGD, AUD) are projected to continue outperforming net energy-deficit currencies (INR, THB, PHP, IDR).
3.USDKRW forecasts have been revised materially lower on robust AI-related semiconductor export strength, while USDTHB forecasts are revised higher to sideways due to a wide oil trade deficit.

APAC FX: Challenging global backdrop
APAC FX forecasts
Individual currency updates

Report data

APAC FX forecasts - Quarter-end targets — as of September 29, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
APAC currencies performance vs USD	-1.1%	Aggregated APAC FX performance against the US dollar year-to-date
DXY Index performance	3.0%	US dollar broad strength year-to-date
Thailand monthly current account deficit	4.8 USD billion	Average monthly deficit weighing on the Thai baht
Thailand peak tourism receipts increase	1.0 USD billion	Incremental increase in tourism receipts during peak season vs preceding months
USDKRW spot level	1359.0 KRW per USD	Spot exchange rate on 29 September 2026