Report Type

Credit Strategy Research Hub

Credit markets entering 2026 are characterized by a favorable default outlook and historically tight spreads, necessitating a strategic pivot toward yield-enhancing complexity. While EUR and USD High Yield default rates are forecast at manageable levels of 2.2% and 3.8% respectively, investment-grade spreads have compressed to the 1st-2nd percentile, leading managers to seek illiquidity premia in asset-backed finance and private placements. Performance remains divergent across regions and sectors; for instance, while corporate leaders like ABB show improving credit profiles and potential net cash positions, Mexico has seen private sector credit growth decelerate sharply to 2.6% amid legislative uncertainty. In the financial sector, the €140bn European AT1 market remains resilient despite regulatory scrutiny, as the cost of replacing these instruments with common equity remains prohibitive. Meanwhile, the supranational landscape is shifting with a reduced €577bn EU RRF envelope and new funding requirements for defense and Ukraine facilities. Ultimately, credit strategy is increasingly focused on deep fundamental research and the capture of carry, as idiosyncratic company-specific factors replace systemic volatility as the primary driver of returns.

21 reports available

CMPC Natureza May Add Pressure

UBS·Jun 11, 2026

UBS maintains a 'Deteriorating' credit outlook for Inversiones CMPC (CMPC) due to rising leverage, pulp price volatility, and the execution risk of its USD 4.6bn Natureza Project. While refinancing risk remains low, CMPC's credit ratings face pressure at the bottom end of the investment grade scale.

OCP S.A.: Lowest-Cost Producer of Phosphate-Based Fertilizer

UBS·Jun 4, 2026

OCP S.A. is a dominant, low-cost phosphate producer benefiting from Morocco's vast reserves, though it currently faces margin compression from high raw material costs linked to Middle East instability.

Celulosa Arauco: Ratings Under Pressure

UBS·Jun 1, 2026

Celulosa Arauco (Celara) is facing significant ratings pressure with a 'Deteriorating' outlook from UBS as leverage reaches 7.6x during the construction of the USD 4.6bn Sucuriú Project. While at risk of becoming a 'fallen angel', the company maintains strong liquidity and support from its parent company.

Trade of the Week Allianz

UBS·May 28, 2026

UBS highlights Allianz as its Trade of the Week, recommending subordinated bonds following strong 1Q26 earnings and a robust Solvency II ratio of 221%.

Barry Callebaut: Tender Offer for EUR Bonds

UBS·Jun 4, 2026

Barry Callebaut is offering to repurchase up to EUR 600mn of its EUR bonds to improve its funding structure and reduce debt. UBS maintains a Deteriorating outlook on the company's BBB- credit rating pending further deleveraging.

Ecopetrol Rising Sovereign Burden

UBS·May 19, 2026

UBS remains constructive on Ecopetrol credit, viewing its 2031 bonds as a sound hold-to-maturity strategy despite sovereign-driven downgrades and policy uncertainty in Colombia.

Suzano Sound Pulp and Paper

UBS·May 14, 2026

Reinvestment Ideas For Late May

UBS·May 14, 2026

Rates Still in the Driver's Seat

Goldman Sachs·May 22, 2026

All reports

Page 1 of 1

UBS Goldman Sachs ING Franklin Templeton Rates Credit Structured Products

Get full access

14-day trial · card required