TS Lombard
Report published August 11, 2026
July CPI Paves The Way For September Cut: TS Lombard Macro Insights
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- TS Lombard
- Report date
- August 11, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: João Pedro Oliveira Fachetti, Elizabeth Johnson
Finvaulta summarizes TS Lombard's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Macro ThematicRates Govt BondsMacro Economic IndicatorsOther
TS Lombard expects the Banco Central of Brazil to cut rates by 25bps in September, but anticipates limited further easing due to expected inflation rebounds and persistent services inflation.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Banco Central is expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut in September, though further easing beyond that is constrained by inflation rebound expectations.
- 2.Recent inflation relief is largely driven by volatile food prices and seasonal factors, which may reverse due to El Niño.
- 3.Persistent services inflation and a tight labor market remain key obstacles to sustained disinflation.
Report data
Real rates will remain firmly restrictive
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| CPI Inflation | 0.07% | Headline monthly inflation |
| 12-month Inflation | 4.44% | Annualized inflation rate |
| Unemployment Rate | 5.4% | Record low for Q2 |
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Authors / Editors
João Pedro Oliveira FachettiElizabeth Johnson
Reported Data Context
- CPI Inflation: 0.07 percent (July 2026) · Source: IBGE
- 12-month Inflation: 4.44 percent (July 2026)
- Unemployment Rate: 5.4 percent (Q2 2026) · Source: IBGE
Themes
Fiscal PolicyInflation DynamicsMonetary Policy
Regions
Latin AmericaBrazil