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Brazil Research Reports & Market Analysis

Finvaulta tracks 200 research reports on Brazil, updated through October 7, 2026. Latest: US Market Intelligence Morning Briefing.

Institutional research on Brazil covering macro, equities, government bonds, and foreign exchange, from Goldman Sachs, UBS, J.P. Morgan, and Bank of America. Finvaulta indexes each report with a summary, key figures and its original publication date.

Finvaulta is an independent research collection; views and forecasts belong to the named report issuers.

Latest research

US Market Intelligence Morning Briefing

J.P. Morgan·Oct 7, 2026

J.P. Morgan Market Intelligence reiterates its Tactically Bullish equity stance into 26Q3 earnings, citing stabilizing bond yields, resilient consumer demand, and broadening sector earnings growth. The desk also pitches a bull thesis on Brazilian equities and suggests tactically longing a Democratic policy factor basket into the midterms.

Compare with the previous edition (Oct 2, 2026)

Brazil General Election: The Right Wins the Night

Goldman Sachs·Oct 7, 2026

Right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47.0% of the first-round vote, leading incumbent President Lula da Silva (45.2%) and establishing himself as the favorite for the October 25 runoff. A concurrent conservative wave handed right and center-right parties control of 57% of the Lower House and 63% of the Senate, reinforcing legislative constraints on fiscal policy regardless of who wins.

Compare with the previous edition (Sep 29, 2026)

Emerging Markets Morning Pulse

Bank J. Safra Sarasin·Oct 6, 2026

Emerging market credit traded mixed to steadier, resilient against higher US Treasury yields with the 10-year reaching 5.32%. Brazil was the premier outperformer following election results, with sovereign spreads narrowing 16–18 bps and corporates advancing 1–3 points.

Compare with the previous edition (Aug 28, 2026)

EMFX Weekly

Bank J. Safra Sarasin·Oct 6, 2026

J. Safra Sarasin's FX trading desk analyzes the market reaction to Flávio Bolsonaro's surprise first-round victory in the Brazilian presidential election, which sparked a 5% rally in the BRL. The desk remains bullish on the Brazilian real while highlighting MXN/BRL as an emerging tactical rotation play.

Compare with the previous edition (Aug 25, 2026)

Up & Adam

Raymond James·Oct 6, 2026

Raymond James reviews early holiday shopping trends kicked off by promotional deal days and previews the 3Q26 earnings season, where elevated expectations and guidance raise the bar for corporates. The note also examines market reactions to Brazil's election shock, where Flavio Bolsonaro's lead sparked a sharp rally across Brazilian equities and the currency.

Compare with the previous edition (Oct 5, 2026)

Consensus Asset Allocation: Tech Back in Focus

J.P. Morgan·Oct 6, 2026

Emerging market consensus allocations show managers increasing exposure to Korea, Taiwan, Mexico, and CEEMEA while reducing positions in China and Brazil. Despite active manager underperformance over the month, J.P. Morgan remains Overweight on South Korea, Taiwan, and Brazil.

Selected research

Selected for relevance; publication dates show when each report was written.

Brazil: Decoding the First-Round Election Results

TS Lombard·Oct 6, 2026

Flávio Bolsonaro outperformed expectations in Brazil's first-round presidential election with 47.1% of the vote, making him the clear frontrunner for the October 25 runoff. Alongside sweeping right-wing gains in Congress, a Flávio presidency would provide strong momentum for fiscal consolidation and policy rate easing into 2027.

Brazil Elections: The Fiscal Adjustment Scenario Gains Strength

UBS·Oct 5, 2026

Following first-round presidential and congressional election results showing strong conservative momentum, UBS has upgraded a 'deeper and durable fiscal adjustment' in Brazil to its base case. The authors anticipate material gains across domestic cyclical equities, yield curve compression, and BRL appreciation.

Latam Today

Goldman Sachs·Oct 5, 2026

Goldman Sachs reviews macroeconomic developments and upcoming data across Latin America, led by Brazil's first-round election where Flávio Bolsonaro outperformed polls to lead President Lula into an October 25 runoff. The report also previews monetary policy decisions and minutes in Mexico, Peru, and Colombia, alongside inflation and trade prints across the region.

Sunday Start: EM's Stress Test

Morgan Stanley·Oct 4, 2026

Emerging markets are demonstrating resilience against rising US yields, elevated oil prices, and dollar strength thanks to orthodox policy and manageable maturity walls. Morgan Stanley anticipates subdued returns rather than a disorderly sell-off, recommending tactical USD hedges in ZAR and MXN while waiting for valuation overshoots to add directional long exposure.

Brazil: The Importance of a Fiscal Adjustment

UBS·Sep 25, 2026

UBS analyzes Brazil's fiscal trajectory, arguing that rising public debt and eroding credibility are keeping domestic risk premiums and interest rates elevated. Sustainable debt stabilization requires containing mandatory spending, enhancing budgetary governance, and rationalizing tax expenditures.

The Rise of Tech in Brazil's Investment

J.P. Morgan·Sep 23, 2026

J.P. Morgan introduces a monthly Investment Activity Index (IAI) for Brazil that integrates software and intellectual-property services alongside construction and capital goods. Software and tech services now represent roughly 15% of total investment, materially improving correlation with quarterly GDP investment figures.