This Earnings Trend Is a Bulls Best Friend

US corporate earnings and sales forecasts for 2026 are being revised upward at an unusually bullish pace early in the year. This top-quintile revision activity, supported by record margins and broad sector participation, historically points toward a +17% annual return for the S&P 500.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Consensus earnings and sales estimates for 2026 are being revised upward unusually early in Q1, which is historically a strong signal for equities.
• 2.Earnings revisions are broad-based; while strongest in mega-cap tech, cyclical sectors like Materials, Financials, and the Russell 2000 are also seeing above-average upgrades.
• 3.Corporate profit margins have reached new record highs as companies maintain a focus on cost management.

Table of Contents

• Bodes well
• Unusually bullish
• Sales up too
• Usual suspects
• Re-accelerating
• The earnings trend is the bulls' friend
• On the margins
• Cost conscious
• Best of times

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