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The Market Ear

February 16, 2026

Nasdaq on Edge: CTAs Lurking Below and Fear Still Elevated

Market ReportEquitiesRates Govt BondsVolatilityCommunication ServicesConsumer Discretionary

The NASDAQ remains range-bound and is testing major support at its 200-day MA, while CTAs are projected to sell up to $2bn in US equities. Market volatility remains high as fear indicators like VVIX stay elevated despite the market being close to all-time highs.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.NASDAQ is testing critical support at the 200-day moving average and the 24,400 level.
  • 2.Systematic selling pressure is expected from CTAs, with estimates of $1.5-2bn in US equity sales over the coming week.
  • 3.Market fear remains elevated with the VVIX at 113 and a wide gap between VVIX and VIX.

Table of Contents

  • NASDAQ
  • Must hold in MAG
  • CTAs
  • Not a typo
  • Fearful
  • The SPX connection
  • Can AI replace AI software?
  • Fast market
  • Still no bid
  • Wild volatile market

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Authors

Author(s)

Securities

SPXNasdaqIGVINFOTCS

Themes

AI vs. Incumbent Software ParadoxSystematic Positioning and CTA FlowsVolatility and Market Fear

Regions

North AmericaAsia PacificUnited StatesIndia