Turning Point

Latest edition · September 27, 2026

Bear Traps Report Turning Point Final III New Sep 27 2026

Surging G7 sovereign yields and disastrous Treasury auctions reveal severe debt supply indigestion exacerbated by hyperscaler AI capex financing. Equity indices hover near record highs despite broken internal breadth, while refined product supply crunches threaten further inflation pressure.

The Bear Traps Report warns of a critical inflection point in global macro markets as U.S. 5-year and 7-year Treasury auctions fail with historic tails, sending G7 yields to multi-year highs alongside widening French-German spreads. The borrowing squeeze is amplified by tech hyperscalers competing for institutional capital to fund an estimated $3.9T–$4.0T in debt issuance across 2026–2027. Concurrently, S&P 500 breadth has collapsed, with over half the index trading below its 200-day moving average, private credit funds gating redemptions, and global energy markets facing an acute shortage of refined products. Strategically, the authors advocate trimming short financials, buying puts on extended tech winners like Palantir and Meta, and preparing for a year-end tax-loss buying opportunity in high-quality beaten-down brand equities and hard commodities.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Sovereign bond markets are facing severe supply-demand imbalances, evidenced by tailing 5-year and 7-year Treasury auctions, G7 yield surges, and ballooning French-German spreads amid fiscal strain.
• 2.Mega-cap tech and AI hyperscalers are flooding credit and equity markets with unprecedented financing needs ($3.9T–$4.0T expected in 2026–27 IG issuance), competing directly with sovereign debt for capital.
• 3.Equity market breadth is severely damaged; the S&P 500 is within 1% of all-time highs while over 50% of its members trade below their 200-day moving average, creating prime conditions to short extended leaders and buy tax-loss merchandise in Q4.

What this series covers

• Our Bear Traps Report Cash Monitor
• The Big Picture
• Speak Loudly but Carry a Little Stick
• The Fat Tail on the 5-Year Bond Auction
• Monthly Net Treasury Issuance 2022-2025
• Steepening and Flattening of the Curve
• What's Causing the Rise in Yields?
• 10yr Yields and Inflation Swaps
• Spreads Between French and German Yields
• MOVE Moves More Than VIX
• Firms Flexing Pricing Power
• Events for the Week Ahead
• Credit – HIGH ALERT
• High Yield vs Leverage Loans Index
• Leveraged Fund Inflows
• How Much of the HYG Move is Rates?
• Supply of U.S. financial securities, 1946-2030
• Fat Tails -- AI Wants Your Cash
• The Race for Cash
• Total Net Issuance by Sector
• Share of fixed income assets yielding over 4%
• DPI Ratio Pooled
• Equities
• META -- Here Comes the Secondary Offering
• The Internal Crash
• Sector Performance for the Week
• Fresh Highs in the Nasdaq/Russell 2000 Ratio
• Magnificent 7 and 10yr Yield
• Bank Index Breaks Key Support
• Trade Alert: Sell 1/3 Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ)
• MET -- the Bag Holder?
• Private Credit: Same Book, Different Page
• Know These Things, If You're in PC (Private Credit)
• Ballroom Donors -- Watch Out!
• Technicals
• Weak Breadth at All-Time Highs
• The Crash Internally
• Home Ownership Rotting?
• Blue Owl Round Trips It!
• PepsiCo Head and Shoulders
• Which Stocks Dropped Below Their 200d MA?
• Which Stocks Crossed Above Their 200d MA This Week
• Commodities
• Gold Miners M&A
• Emerging Markets
• Kospi and FXI Become Antipodes
• Trump/Xi Summit Recap
• Energy
• Trump is Making the Wrong Bet
• This is No Longer About Oil
• Global Crude in Transit
• Gulf Tanker Rates vs the Global Average
• Refined Product Prices Much Higher than Oil
• Global Refined Product Exports
• Panic Time
• Refinery Utilization Rates Pull Back
• Short-Term High Conviction Position List (30-60 Days)
• Long-Term High Conviction Position List (12-24 Month View)

Edition archive

• Bear Traps Report Turning Point Final III New Sep 27 2026

  September 27, 2026

• Bear Traps Report Turning Point Final New III Sep 20 2026

  September 20, 2026

• Bear Traps Report Turning Point Final EDITED BY PAUL New final Jose Aug 23 2026.01

  August 23, 2026

• Bear Traps Report Turning Point Final New New II Aug 2 2026(1)

  August 2, 2026