Report published September 28, 2026

The Week in Seven Charts: 10-Year Treasury Yields Hit 19-Year Highs and US Earnings Outperform

Syz Private Banking · September 28, 2026

The US 10-year Treasury yield surged past 5.20% to a 19-year high on strong PMI data, oil near $100, and hawkish Fed expectations. Meanwhile, US corporate earnings and AI cost deflation continue to outpace the rest of the world despite mounting US federal debt and record Chinese gold buying.

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Finvaulta summarizes Syz Private Banking's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed nearly 30 basis points in two days above 5.20%, reaching a 19-year high driven by flash PMIs, inflation risks, and hawkish Fed pricing.
2.US corporate earnings growth (+1,300% since 1990) has outpaced the rest of the world (+500%) by 2.6 times, with ex-US corporate profits largely stagnant between 2008 and 2025.
3.US gross federal debt has expanded to exceed 122% of GDP, with CBO projecting net interest outlays above $1 trillion in 2026, intensifying reliance on AI-led productivity to outpace debt burdens.

The 10-year Treasury yield just surged above 5.20% for the first time in 19 years
The gap between US earnings growth and the rest of the world has never been wider
America's debt problem is becoming a growth test
China has spent a record amount on gold imports this year
The iPhone got 6.3% more expensive this year. In gold terms, it actually got cheaper
Artificial thought may be getting cheaper faster than any transformative technology in history
Trump's net worth hit $7bn in 2026

Report data

United States Government Bonds 10-Year Yield Performance

Metric	Estimate	Context
US 10-Year Treasury Yield	5.20%	Reached highest level in 19 years (since 2007)
US Corporate Earnings Growth vs Ex-US	1300 vs 500%	US corporate earnings up ~1,300% compared to ~500% outside the US since 1990
US Gross Federal Debt to GDP	122 % of GDP	Exceeds 122% of GDP with CBO projecting net interest outlays >$1tn in 2026
China Gold Imports	158.8 USD billion	Over 1,000 tonnes imported, surpassing the $96.5bn spent over the entirety of 2025
China US Treasury Holdings	618 USD billion	Holdings decreased as gold imports hit record levels

Source: Bull Theory; The Kobeissi Letter; Michel A. Arouet; General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China; FT. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.