Report published August 14, 2026
State Street Weekly Economic Perspectives: US CPI Trends, Fed Policy Outlook, and Global Macro Review
Source and citation context
- Report date
- August 14, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Simona Mocuta (Author), Amy Le (Author), Krishna Bhimavarapu (Author)
Finvaulta summarizes State Street Investment Management's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
July US inflation data (core CPI at 2.5% y/y) supports the view that the Federal Reserve will hold policy rates steady in September and through year-end. Meanwhile, UK economic growth slowed to 0.4% q/q in Q2 with a weak H2 outlook, and the RBA kept its cash rate at 4.35% while maintaining a hawkish bias.
Key Takeaways
- 1.US July headline CPI rose 3.4% y/y and core slowed to 2.5% y/y, providing sufficient evidence for the Federal Reserve to remain on hold in September and through year-end.
- 2.UK Q2 GDP growth slowed to 0.4% q/q as momentum faded, with second-half growth expected to remain very weak due to unwinding residual seasonality, Middle East tensions, and real-income pressure on households.
- 3.The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% with a persistent tightening bias, tolerating slowing housing demand and rising mortgage stress to ensure inflation returns sustainably to target.
Table of Contents
- Weekly Highlights
- US: More Reassuring Inflation News
- UK: GDP Growth Lost Momentum
- RBA: On Hold
- Week in Review
Report data
US Services ex Shelter Inflation Back to Long-Term Average
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI Inflation | 3.4% | US headline CPI inflation year-over-year matched consensus expectations |
| Core CPI Inflation | 2.5% | US core CPI inflation year-over-year reached its lowest level since February |
| Retail Sales | -0.6% | US retail sales month-over-month decline, with control sales down 0.4% |
| GDP Growth | 0.4% | UK preliminary GDP quarter-over-quarter growth slowed down |
| Cash Rate | 4.35% | Reserve Bank of Australia maintained cash rate target |
Reports in this series
Weekly Economic Perspectives is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 14, 2026.
Part of the Weekly Economic Perspectives series — view all 3 editions
- May 19wep-20260518
- Jun 1wep-20260601
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Headline CPI Inflation: 3.4 % (July 2026) · Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
- Core CPI Inflation: 2.5 % (July 2026) · Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
- Retail Sales: -0.6 % (July 2026)
- GDP Growth: 0.4 % (Q2 2026) · Source: U.K. Office for National Statistics (ONS)
- Cash Rate: 4.35 % (August 2026) · Source: Reserve Bank of Australia