Weekly Economic Perspectives

Latest edition · August 14, 2026

wep 20270817

July US inflation data (core CPI at 2.5% y/y) supports the view that the Federal Reserve will hold policy rates steady in September and through year-end. Meanwhile, UK economic growth slowed to 0.4% q/q in Q2 with a weak H2 outlook, and the RBA kept its cash rate at 4.35% while maintaining a hawkish bias.

State Street's weekly macro review highlights that July US CPI data (3.4% y/y headline, 2.5% y/y core) and easing PPI final demand inflation (4.7% y/y) provide enough reassurance for the Federal Reserve to stay on hold through year-end. In the UK, Q2 GDP growth slowed to 0.4% q/q as underlying consumer momentum faded, setting up a subdued second half. In Australia, the RBA held its cash rate steady at 4.35% with a hawkish stance, monitoring softening housing investor loan commitments (-10.2% q/q) and rising mortgage servicing burdens while remaining focused on returning inflation to target.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.US July headline CPI rose 3.4% y/y and core slowed to 2.5% y/y, providing sufficient evidence for the Federal Reserve to remain on hold in September and through year-end.
• 2.UK Q2 GDP growth slowed to 0.4% q/q as momentum faded, with second-half growth expected to remain very weak due to unwinding residual seasonality, Middle East tensions, and real-income pressure on households.
• 3.The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% with a persistent tightening bias, tolerating slowing housing demand and rising mortgage stress to ensure inflation returns sustainably to target.

What this series covers

• Weekly Highlights
• US: More Reassuring Inflation News
• UK: GDP Growth Lost Momentum
• RBA: On Hold
• Week in Review

Edition archive

• wep 20270817

  August 14, 2026

• wep-20260601

  June 1, 2026

• wep-20260518

  May 19, 2026