Report published September 25, 2026
Société Générale: Week Ahead in Economics: Inflation Pressures Build on Both Sides of the Atlantic
Société Générale · September 25, 2026
Societe Generale previews global macroeconomic releases for the week of 28 September to 2 October 2026, highlighting rising Atlantic inflation pressures and an expected 25bp rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Euro area September headline inflation is projected to climb to 3.7% YoY on energy costs, while US PCE and payrolls will test the resilience of US demand.
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Finvaulta summarizes Société Générale's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Euro area September HICP inflation is projected to surge to 3.7% YoY, driven by higher energy and fuel costs, supporting market expectations for further ECB policy rate tightening.
- 2.The RBA is expected to raise its cash rate target by 25bp to 4.60% as resilient growth and inflation materialize upside risks, while Colombia's BanRep is expected to remain on hold at 12.00%.
- 3.US core PCE inflation is expected to come in around 0.25% MoM with super-core around 0.27% MoM, alongside firm nonfarm payrolls, keeping inflation and labor dynamics front and center.
Table of Contents
- Calendar – G5 – 28 September - 02 October
- Calendar – Other countries – 28 September - 02 October
- SG Central Bank Calls
- Euro area: Rising inflation to boost rate hike expectations
- Germany
- France
- United Kingdom: Labour Party Conference to take centre stage
- Asia Pacific: Korea trade and CPI softer; RBA to hike
- Japan
- Australia
- South Korea
- Latin America: Brazil IP weakens, Mexico trade remains strong; BanRep on hold
- Brazil: weaker IP and loans; strong CAB and labour market
- Mexico: trade-driven recovery gaining traction
- Colombia: BanRep likely to stay on hold
Report data
Change (pp) in the contribution to euro area HICP (% yoy) in September
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Area HICP Inflation YoY | 3.7% | SG forecast for September flash HICP inflation, rising from 3.2% in August |
| Euro Area Core HICP Inflation YoY | 2.4% | SG forecast for Euro area core HICP inflation |
| RBA Cash Rate Target | 4.60% | Expected 25bp policy rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia from 4.35% |
| BanRep Overnight Lending Rate | 12.00% | Expected hold in policy rate by Banco de la República |
| Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index | 26 index | SG forecast for large manufacturing DI, rising from 22 in 2Q26 |
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Week Ahead in Economics is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 25, 2026.
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