Report published August 14, 2026
Week Ahead in Economics: Fed Has More Time; BoJ Has Less – Société Générale
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Société Générale
- Report date
- August 14, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Jan Groen (Author), Michel Martinez (Author), Anatoli Annenkov (Author), Sam Cartwright (Author), Fabien Bossy (Author), Dev Ashish (Author), Kokou Agbo Biloua (Contributor), Wei Yao (Contributor)
Finvaulta summarizes Société Générale's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Societe Generale previews the global economic week ahead, arguing that soft US July core PCE nowcasts give the Fed time to remain on hold in September, while persistent yen weakness and reflationary data demand faster normalisation from the BoJ.
Key Takeaways
- 1.US July CPI and PPI data imply muted core PCE inflation (~0.15% m/m, 3.2% y/y), lowering the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September and pushing potential hike risks to December.
- 2.Japan's yen depreciation despite joint intervention underscores the need for accelerated Bank of Japan rate normalization, with incoming robust 2Q GDP and firm July CPI reinforcing the case.
- 3.In Europe, business surveys and flash PMIs are likely to soften modestly due to heatwaves and elevated energy costs, while ECB wage tracker data may reinforce expectations of a September rate hike.
Table of Contents
- Calendar – G5 – 17 - 21 August
- Calendar – Other countries – 17 - 21 August
- SG Central Bank Calls
- United States: July Inflation Data Buys the Fed Time for the Fall
- Euro area: Business surveys likely to soften modestly amid heatwaves and rising energy costs
- Euro area
- Why use z-scores for PMI analysis?
- PMIs to deteriorate modestly as firms face higher energy prices and heatwaves
- France
- United Kingdom: Data dump supports BoE’s current stance
- Retail sales growth still supported by the World Cup and warm weather
- PMIs to ease slightly in August
- Asia Pacific: China activity still weak; Japan growth still robust; BI to hold
- China
- Japan
- Indonesia
- Latin America: Brazil's economic activity and Mexico's retail sales weakened in 2Q26
- Brazil
- Mexico
- CROSS ASSET RESEARCH – ECONOMICS
Report data
SG Central Bank Calls
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US Core PCE Price Index (Forecast) | 0.15 % m/m | Societe Generale nowcast for July US Core PCE inflation based on CPI and PPI inputs. |
| Japan GDP (Forecast) | 0.6 % q/q | SG forecast for Japan preliminary seasonally adjusted 2Q26 GDP growth. |
| Bank Indonesia 7-day Reverse Repo Rate (Forecast) | 5.75% | Expected policy decision at the August 18-19 BI meeting. |
| Eurozone Composite PMI (Forecast) | 51.9 index | Flash estimate expectation for August Eurozone Composite PMI. |
| UK Private Sector Regular Earnings ex Bonus (Forecast) | 2.7 % y/y | Private sector wage growth measure preferred by the Bank of England. |
Reports in this series
Week Ahead in Economics is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 14, 2026.
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- US Core PCE Price Index (Forecast): 0.15 % m/m (2026-07) · Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Economics
- Japan GDP (Forecast): 0.6 % q/q (2Q 2026) · Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Economics
- Bank Indonesia 7-day Reverse Repo Rate (Forecast): 5.75 % (2026-08) · Source: Bank Indonesia
- Eurozone Composite PMI (Forecast): 51.9 index (2026-08) · Source: HCOB / S&P Global
- UK Private Sector Regular Earnings ex Bonus (Forecast): 2.7 % y/y (2026-06) · Source: ONS
Securities
Themes
Regions
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