Report published August 13, 2026
Société Générale FX Strategy: Summertime and Fading Inflation Fears (August 2026)
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Société Générale
- Report date
- August 13, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Kit Juckes
Finvaulta summarizes Société Générale's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Fading inflation fears and US rate expectations have kept FX markets subdued, while debt sustainability concerns continue to prevent narrowing yield differentials from strengthening the yen. Meanwhile, the Norwegian krone remains the best-performing G10 currency on the back of hawkish Norges Bank rate pricing.
Key Takeaways
- 1.US front-end rates continue pricing a one-in-three chance of a September rate hike and a full hike by December, though weak retail sales could dampen Fed tightening expectations.
- 2.Narrowing US-Japan yield differentials and rising Japanese yields are failing to lift the yen due to ongoing debt sustainability concerns.
- 3.NOK remains the top-performing G10 currency year-to-date and over the past month, supported by a hawkish Norges Bank pricing a 60% chance of a September hike.
Table of Contents
- Rising Japanese yields don't help the yen
- A narrowing US-Japanese differential doesn't, either.
Report data
Rising Japanese yields don't help the yen
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Fed September Rate Hike Implied Probability | 33.3% | Market-implied front-end US rate curve pricing |
| Norges Bank September Rate Hike Implied Probability | 60% | Market pricing following hawkish Norges Bank meeting |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Fed September Rate Hike Implied Probability: 33.3 % (September 2026) · Source: SG Cross Asset Research
- Norges Bank September Rate Hike Implied Probability: 60 % (September 2026) · Source: SG Cross Asset Research
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