Europe – Macro radar

Latest edition · September 21, 2026

Europe Macro Radar Softer September business surveys, recovery intact

Société Générale expects upcoming European September business surveys to soften slightly amid higher energy costs, though the regional economic recovery remains on track. Meanwhile, French fiscal announcements drove OAT/Bund spreads above 100bps, while the BoE signaled potential rate hikes ahead.

In this edition of Europe Macro Radar, Société Générale highlights that European business surveys are likely to moderate in September due to a recent 20% increase in energy prices and elevated borrowing costs, but expansion in manufacturing and services should persist. While July industrial production contracted 0.1% mom and automotive production deteriorated, the goods trade balance improved, buoyed by AI-related manufacturing and pharmaceuticals. Sovereign risk emerged in France as the OAT/Bund spread exceeded 100bps following PM Lecornu's 2027 deficit target announcement of 5.0% of GDP. In the UK, the Bank of England held rates at 3.75% with a 6-3 split, leaving the door open for a November hike if energy prices do not ease.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.September European business surveys are expected to soften slightly under higher energy prices and interest rates, but not enough to derail ongoing economic recovery.
• 2.French OAT/Bund spreads jumped past the 100bps threshold as markets reacted skeptically to Prime Minister Lecornu's 2027 deficit target of 5.0% and revised 2026 target of 5.4% of GDP.
• 3.Europe's energy trade deficit remains well contained at 1.7% of GDP in July (versus 4.3% in 2022), buffered by a 22% reduction in gas consumption since 2021 despite a recent 20% surge in energy prices.

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Edition archive

• Europe Macro Radar Softer September business surveys, recovery intact

  September 21, 2026

• 2026 09 07 Europe Macro Radar ECB Moving Closer to a Restrictive Stance

  September 7, 2026

• Europe – Macro radar Higher July inflation & decent 2Q growth

  July 27, 2026