Asia Equity Strategy

Latest edition · September 8, 2026

2026 09 08 Asia Equity Strategy 4Q Outlook, The AI Trade is Maturing, From Crowded Leaders to Capex Winners

Societe Generale's 4Q 2026 Asia Equity Strategy argues that the AI trade is maturing as tech price momentum decouples from EPS upgrades. Investors should rotate from crowded memory leaders into broader capex winners across Taiwan, Japan, onshore China, and India manufacturing.

Entering the fourth quarter of 2026, Societe Generale highlights that Asian equity markets face a maturing AI rally where tech earnings revisions remain robust but price momentum has reversed due to peak memory margin concerns and high leverage. The strategists overweight China onshore, Taiwan (TWSE), and Topix, while maintaining a neutral stance on Korea (Kospi), India, and offshore China, and underweighting MSCI ASEAN. Top tactical and thematic expressions include long TWSE versus short Kospi, long Topix versus short Nikkei, long Japanese banks, long Korean non-tech capex/financials, long China STAR 50/tech hardware, and long India manufacturing.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.The AI trade is maturing as market performance diverges from upward earnings revisions; recommend long TWSE, short Kospi, and rotating into broader Korean non-tech capex and financials.
• 2.BoJ hawkishness and rising 10y JGB yields will not derail Japan's bull market; recommend Long Topix / Short Nikkei, Long Banks, and exposure to the JPY370tn public-private Investment Growth Strategy.
• 3.In China, policy stimulus expectations remain muted, requiring focus on profit growth rather than re-rating; onshore technology hardware and semiconductor equipment are favoured over offshore AI internet.

What this series covers

• Investment summary
• The AI trade is maturing – From crowded leaders to capex winners
• The AI trade is maturing
• Still some crowded positions
• The BoJ is turning hawkish — But it won’t kill the bull market
• How to position
• What could go wrong
• Beijing plays the long game – Keep exposure to Onshore Tech
• Index and basket exposure
• India – Stabilisation, but Nifty lacks a catalyst
• Investment opportunities
• Index targets and scenarios
• Equity baskets
• Market pages

Edition archive

• 2026 09 08 Asia Equity Strategy 4Q Outlook, The AI Trade is Maturing, From Crowded Leaders to Capex Winners

  September 8, 2026

• Asia Equity Strategy Korea the retail money is rotating from leveraged ETFs to structured products

  September 1, 2026

• Asia Equity Strategy Japan is a policy risk, Korea is cycle-driven- Stay invested in the Topix

  June 24, 2026