Report published August 12, 2026
Société Générale Morning Briefing: US CPI Outlook, Treasury Auction & FX Dynamics
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Société Générale
- Report date
- August 12, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 12, 2026
Authors / editors: Kenneth Broux, Santosh Ejanthkar, Tanmay G Purohit, Juliette Guillaume
Finvaulta summarizes Société Générale's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Société Générale's daily briefing highlights market caution ahead of the US July CPI release and $42bn 10-year Treasury refunding auction, warning of potential long-duration exit risks reminiscent of August 2023. Meanwhile, Brent crude nears $90/b on geopolitical escalations in the Red Sea, and USD/JPY retains an upward bias toward 160.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Bond markets are wary of a repeat of the August 2023 duration selloff ahead of today's US CPI release and the $42bn 10y Treasury auction.
- 2.SG Economics forecasts US headline and core CPI at 0.2% m/m for July, while consensus looks for 3.4% y/y headline and 2.5% y/y core.
- 3.USD/JPY maintains an upside bias toward 160.70/161.20 driven by higher JGB yields and diminishing intervention impact, while EUR/USD remains rangebound into US CPI.
Table of Contents
- OVERNIGHT NEWS
- CALENDAR
- MARKET REVIEW
- OUTLOOK
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Report data
Chart of the day: US CPI release of Aug-23 (alongside Treasury refunding) set 10y UST on course for 5% — as of August 12, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude Price | 90 USD/b | Brent nears $90/b amid Red Sea shipping attacks and stalled Iran peace talks. |
| PBoC Yuan Daily Reference Rate | 6.7882 USD/CNY | PBoC daily fixing rate for the yuan. |
| Gold Price | 4386 USD/oz | Gold trading price overnight. |
| US 10-Year Treasury Refunding Auction Size | 42 USD bn | US Treasury selling 10y notes. |
| SG US Headline & Core CPI Forecast | 0.2 % m/m | SG economics monthly CPI forecast. |
Reports in this series
Morning Briefing is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 12, 2026.
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Brent Crude Price: 90 USD/b (Overnight 2026-08-12)
- PBoC Yuan Daily Reference Rate: 6.7882 USD/CNY (2026-08-12) · Source: PBoC
- Gold Price: 4386 USD/oz (2026-08-12)
- US 10-Year Treasury Refunding Auction Size: 42 USD bn (2026-08-12) · Source: US Treasury
- SG US Headline & Core CPI Forecast: 0.2 % m/m (July 2026) · Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Corporate
Securities
Themes
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