Report published September 24, 2026
Société Générale Morning Briefing: Global Bond Rout and FX Carry Trade Shake-Out
Société Générale · September 24, 2026
A violent selloff in global bonds accelerated after strong US PMI data and weak Treasury auctions, pushing 10-year US Treasury yields to 5.13% and triggering carry-trade unwinds across emerging market currencies. Central banks in Europe showed divergent paths, with Norges Bank hiking rates by 25bp, the Riksbank signalling near-term tightening, and the SNB softening its FX intervention stance.
Read the remaining 3 pages
Finvaulta summarizes Société Générale's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Global bond selloff intensified following strong US PMI data and weak Treasury auctions, pushing 10-year UST yields to a cycle high of 5.13% and raising October FOMC hike pricing to 71%.
- 2.The bond rout spilled over into FX, triggering a shake-out in carry trades, with MXN and ZAR breaking key technical supports including their 200-day moving averages.
- 3.European central banks diverged: SNB kept rates at 0.0% but softened its FX intervention bias, Norges Bank hiked 25bp to 4.50% with hawkish guidance, and the Riksbank held at 1.75% while signalling hikes in late 2026.
Table of Contents
- OVERNIGHT NEWS
- CALENDAR
- Key events of the day
- MARKET REVIEW
- FOREX
- RATES
- OUTLOOK
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Report data
Norway policy rate hoisted to 4.50%
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 10-Year US Treasury Yield | 5.13% | Reached new cycle high amid strong PMI and poor auction demand |
| 2-Year US Treasury Yield | 4.94% | Rose as market priced a 71% probability of an October FOMC rate hike |
| US Manufacturing PMI | 58.4 index | PMI acceleration triggered bond selloff and stop losses |
| Norges Bank Policy Rate | 4.50% | Raised by 25bp with guidance that rate may remain elevated for a time |
| Riksbank Policy Rate | 1.75% | Kept on hold but signaled increase in November or December |
Reports in this series
Morning Briefing is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 24, 2026.
Part of the Morning Briefing series — view all 16 editions
Access the full report
And others from the leading tier 1 banks.
Free account: read previews and a daily allowance of full reports. Pro removes the daily limit.
Authors / Editors
Browse More
Related Reports
Hyperscalers vs Governments: Who's the Dog, Who's the Tail?
September 25, 2026
Global EM Weekly: Where Is There Still Room to Cut?
September 25, 2026
US and Global Strategy: The Great Bull vs Bear Debate
September 25, 2026
Week Ahead in Economics: Inflation Pressures Build on Both Sides of the Atlantic
September 25, 2026
Credit Strategy Weekly: Hopefully Not a False Dawn
September 24, 2026