Report published September 4, 2026

Société Générale Morning Briefing: Fed Rate Hold Prospects, Yen Carry Trade Unwind, and FX Shifts

Société Générale · September 4, 2026

Société Générale's morning briefing highlights bond yield relief and an unravelling Yen carry trade ahead of critical US NFP data. The Yen gained roughly 3% on BoJ hawkishness and intervention, while global yields pulled back as Fed officials hinted at a September pause.

Read the full report

Read the remaining 4 pages

View Report Sign in

Finvaulta summarizes Société Générale's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Global bond yields backed off highs after dovish commentary from Fed officials Waller and Williams expressing reluctance to hike, despite recent long-end sell-offs and fiscal concerns.
2.The Japanese Yen rallied nearly 3% as the carry trade unwound amid BoJ hawkishness, official FX intervention tailwinds, and narrowing 2y UST/JGB yield differentials below 250bp.
3.China's CNY strengthened to a three-year high at 6.7787/USD, prompting the PBoC to lean against excessive appreciation via its daily fixing bias while Governor Pan denied competitive devaluation intentions.

OVERNIGHT NEWS
CALENDAR
MARKET REVIEW
The week in review
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Report data

US NFP: private employment growth has slowed

Metric	Estimate	Context
Germany Factory Orders	2.5%	Germany July factory orders +2.5% m/m (13.1% yoy), beating forecasts.
US NFP SG Forecast	70.0 k	SG forecast for US nonfarm payrolls vs 55k consensus and 30k whisper.
PBoC CNY Daily Fixing	6.7787 USD/CNY	Strongest daily fixing since February 2023.
European Natural Gas Price	70.0 €/MWh	Spike in natural gas above €70/MWh driving European inflation concerns.
India Q2 GDP Growth	7.8%	Above consensus forecast of 7.3% yoy, prompting RBI hike expectations.