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Report published August 13, 2026

Société Générale Morning Briefing: US Inflation Relief, UK GDP Resilience, and G10 FX Carry

Source and citation context

Report date
August 13, 2026
Analysis as of
Not stated in source

Authors / editors: Kenneth Broux, Santosh Ejantkar, Tanmay G Purohit, Juliette Guillaume

Finvaulta summarizes Société Générale's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Daily UpdateCommoditiesEquitiesFXOther

Global bond yields ex-Japan consolidated lower after in-line US CPI data reduced the likelihood of a September Fed rate hike, supporting FX carry trades. Meanwhile, UK Q2 GDP showed resilient 0.4% QoQ growth and Norges Bank is expected to maintain a hawkish pause at 4.25%.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.In-line US July CPI data has tempered expectations for a Fed rate hike in September, leaving bond yields outside Japan lower and supporting FX carry trades.
  • 2.UK GDP expanded 0.4% QoQ in Q2 (1.2% YoY) with June GDP up 0.3% MoM, demonstrating economic resilience led by services and business investment.
  • 3.Norges Bank is expected to hold rates unchanged at 4.25% with a hawkish tilt, keeping the NOK attractive as a carry trade in G10.

Table of Contents

  • OVERNIGHT NEWS
  • CALENDAR
  • MARKET REVIEW
  • OUTLOOK
  • TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Report data

Chart of the day: Resilient UK economy expands at strongest pace since winter of 2024/25

MetricEstimateContext
UK 2Q GDP Growth0.4 % QoQ1.2% YoY; private consumption up 0.3%, business investment up 1.2%.
US 10y Treasury Refunding Auction Yield4.683%Auction had no tail, non-dealers bid 91.4%, bid-to-cover 2.53x.
US Headline CPI0.1 % MoMCore CPI rose 0.2% MoM (2.5% YoY); super core services ex-housing dropped below 3%.
EM Portfolio Inflows18.8 USD billionDebt inflows reached $26.7bn while equity outflows were $7.8bn.
Norges Bank Policy Rate4.25%Consensus expectation is an unchanged rate at 4.25%.
Source: US Treasury; IIF. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

Reports in this series

Morning Briefing is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 13, 2026.

Part of the Morning Briefing series — view all 11 editions

Looking for the latest edition? 2026 09 09 Morning Briefing Oil Back Up to 100, EGBs Relaxed About Growth (Sep 9, 2026)

  1. Jul 9Morning Briefing - Back where we started
  2. Jul 20Morning Briefing - Yields gap on $90 oil
  3. Jul 22Morning Briefing - Buyers strike
  4. Aug 10Morning Briefing Pressure off Fed after employment shrinks
  5. Aug 12Morning Briefing US CPI corner turned

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Authors / Editors

Kenneth BrouxSantosh EjantkarTanmay G PurohitJuliette Guillaume

Reported Data Context

  • UK 2Q GDP Growth: 0.4 % QoQ (Q2 2026)
  • US 10y Treasury Refunding Auction Yield: 4.683 % (August 2026) · Source: US Treasury
  • US Headline CPI: 0.1 % MoM (July 2026)
  • EM Portfolio Inflows: 18.8 USD billion (July 2026) · Source: IIF
  • Norges Bank Policy Rate: 4.25 % (Current / August 2026)

Securities

AUDUSDUSDJPYEURUSDEURNOKGBPUSDUSDBRLUSDMXNCO1

Themes

Central Bank Policy Trajectory and Rate Pause SpeculationCross-Asset Carry Trade DynamicsEmerging Market Capital Flows and LatAm Political Risk Divergence

Regions

North AmericaEuropeUKUnited StatesUnited KingdomNorway

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Société GénéraleDaily UpdateAUDUSDUSDJPYEURUSDFXRates Govt Bonds

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