Report published August 10, 2026

Société Générale Morning Briefing: Fed Policy Repricing Post-Payroll Shock and Global Macro Outlook (August 10, 2026)

Société Générale · August 10, 2026

US employment shrank by 23k in July alongside flat services wage growth, lowering September Fed hike pricing to under 50% and sparking a bull steepening in USTs. Concurrently, softer inflation in China and Hungary strengthens the case for lower yields and further central bank easing.

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Finvaulta summarizes Société Générale's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.A shock contraction of 23k in July US nonfarm payrolls and -103k in revisions pushed September Fed rate hike odds below 50% and triggered a bull steepener in the UST curve.
2.The US Dollar faces technical pressure as DXY approaches its 200-DMA at 99.18, with EUR/USD eyeing resistance at 1.1610/1.1625.
3.China's July inflation data printed softer than expected (headline CPI at 0.5% yoy, PPI at 3.5% yoy), supporting a potential retest of the 1.70% 12-month low for 10y CGB yields.

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Report data

Dollar expensive as Fed rate hike expectations falter — as of August 10, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
US July Nonfarm Employment Change	-23.0 k	Unexpected contraction in US nonfarm employment alongside -103k two-month revisions.
US Unemployment Rate	4.1%	Dipped to 4.1% on the back of a shrinking labor force.
China July Headline CPI	0.5 % YoY	Slowed from 1.0% YoY in June as oil shock impacts fade.
Hungary July Headline CPI	1.2 % YoY	Slowed to a ten-year low, supporting further MNB rate cuts.