Société Générale Market Wrap-Up: Credit Sector Spread Forecasts & Q4 Outlook

Key Takeaways

• 1.Credit spreads are forecast to stay rangebound through year-end and early next year before widening gently into 2027.
• 2.SG maintains an overweight recommendation on higher-beta credit sectors (AT1 CoCos, Corporate Hybrids, Tier 2 bonds, Sub insurance, Utilities, Real Estate) while remaining underweight senior Non-financial sectors.
• 3.Secondary credit markets continue to exhibit remarkable resilience despite the global sovereign bond sell-off, high inflation expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and private debt worries.

Table of Contents

• Market highlights
• Market thoughts
• Sectors spread to benchmarks forecasts
• iBoxx Corporates spread to benchmark, forecasts and breakevens
• Market review
• Credit spreads remain in a narrow range
• USD credit at both ends of the performance table
• Excess returns remain positive
• Primary markets
• Investment grade
• New issue benchmarks
• Investment grade non-financial corporate supply
• High Yield
• High-yield supply
• Senior financials
• Senior financials supply
• Sub financials
• Sub financials supply
• Green and SLB issuance
• Overall green issuance
• Green and total issuance per market
• CROSS ASSET RESEARCH – FIXED INCOME GROUP
• Rates & Forex Research for Corporates

Report data

Sectors spread to benchmarks forecasts

Reports in this series

Market Wrap-up is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 4, 2026.

Part of the Market Wrap-up series — view all 13 editions

Looking for the latest edition? Credit Market Wrap up Fragile! (Oct 7, 2026)

1. Jul 22Market Wrap-up Default rates show not all is rosy in credit
2. Sep 1Credit Market Wrap up Yields, credit and hyperscalers
3. Sep 2Credit Market Wrap up What to expect into year end Scorecard and forecasts