Report published August 13, 2026
July CPI and PPI Data Imply Soft Core PCE and Support September Fed Pause: Société Générale Analysis
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Société Générale
- Report date
- August 13, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Jan Groen (Chief US Economist)
Finvaulta summarizes Société Générale's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Societe Generale nowcasts July US Core PCE inflation at a soft 0.15% m/m (3.2% yr/yr) and super-core PCE at 0.06% m/m based on July CPI and PPI prints. This subdued momentum reduces the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September FOMC meeting.
Key Takeaways
- 1.July CPI and PPI data imply a soft July core PCE print of approximately 0.15% m/m (3.2% yr/yr) and headline PCE essentially flat m/m (3.5% yr/yr).
- 2.The soft July PCE print significantly reduces the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the September FOMC meeting.
- 3.Super-core PCE is projected at just 0.06% m/m, driven down by soft healthcare and transportation services despite a sharp rise in portfolio management fees.
Table of Contents
- July CPI: As Expected with Firmer Core Goods
- July PPI: Services Soft Again
- Translating July CPI and PPI into July PCE: Again, a Soft Core PCE
- Consequences for the September FOMC Meeting
- CROSS ASSET RESEARCH – ECONOMICS
Report data
July PCE Nowcasts
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| July Headline CPI (m/m) | 0.1% | Rebounded from -0.4% m/m in June, in line with consensus (0.1%) vs SG forecast (0.2%). |
| July Core CPI (m/m) | 0.2% | In line with consensus and SG forecasts, following a flat reading in June; annual rate at 2.5% yr/yr. |
| July Core PCE Nowcast (m/m) | 0.15% | SG nowcast for July core PCE inflation, comparing to 0.13% in June. |
| July Super-Core PCE Nowcast (m/m) | 0.06% | Nowcast for super-core PCE (non-housing core services), lowest monthly increase since April 2025. |
| July Headline PCE Nowcast (m/m) | -0.02% | Headline PCE nowcast essentially flat over the month (-0.02% m/m vs -0.11% in June). |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- July Headline CPI (m/m): 0.1 % (2026-07) · Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Economics
- July Core CPI (m/m): 0.2 % (2026-07) · Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Economics
- July Core PCE Nowcast (m/m): 0.15 % (2026-07) · Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Economics
- July Super-Core PCE Nowcast (m/m): 0.06 % (2026-07) · Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Economics
- July Headline PCE Nowcast (m/m): -0.02 % (2026-07) · Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Economics
Themes
Regions
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