Report published September 4, 2026
Global EM Weekly: Forecast Update – Upbeat Forecasts for EM Local Markets
Société Générale · September 4, 2026
Société Générale has updated its EM local rates and FX forecasts through 3Q27, maintaining a constructive outlook driven by carry and declining cross-asset volatility despite Fed repricing risks. The bank initiates tactical receiver trades in HUF IRS and CZK FRAs, alongside short EUR/INR and EUR/IDR forward positions.
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Finvaulta summarizes Société Générale's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Société Générale refreshed its quarterly FX and rates forecasts through 3Q27, staying constructive on EM local currencies and bonds driven by carry, declining cross-asset volatility, and lower EM FX beta to the USD.
- 2.Monetary policy divergence across emerging markets is set to widen: Asian central banks face potential rate hikes due to energy and inflation pressures, whereas central banks across CEEMEA, LATAM, and Frontier Markets have scope to ease.
- 3.New tactical trade recommendations include receiving 2y HUF IRS, receiving CZK 9x12 FRA, and entering short EUR/INR and EUR/IDR 3m NDF positions to exploit Asian FX resilience and attractive carry.
Table of Contents
- Highlights
- EM Strategy cheat sheet
- EM trade idea monitor
- Market themes – Upbeat forecasts for EM local markets
- Asia Strategy Updates
- CEEMEA Strategy Updates
- LATAM Strategy Updates
- Frontier Markets Strategy Updates
- Global EM previews
- Chile – Central bank watch
- Forecasts: rates & currencies
- SG EM Econ Releases Calendar
Report data
We anticipate policy rate hikes in parts of Asia, whereas CEEMEA, LATAM, and Frontiers have space to ease monetary policy over the coming quarters
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| RBI Terminal Policy Rate Forecast | 6.00% | Société Générale expects three 25bp hikes by the Reserve Bank of India in Oct, Dec, and Feb '27. |
| Kazakhstan Policy Rate | 16.25% | The NBK cut the policy rate by 50bp to 16.25% on 4 September, surprising expectations of a 25bp cut. |
| Egypt Headline CPI Inflation Forecast | 16.1 % yoy | Expected acceleration from 14.9% yoy in July, driven by food, beverages, and utilities inflation. |
| India Retail FCNR(B) Inflows | 127.2 USD bn | Final inflows exceeded expectations, with $61.8bn in the scheme's final week swelling RBI FX reserves. |
| Nigeria Real GDP Growth | 4.4 % yoy | Growth accelerated from 3.9% yoy in 1Q26, driven by a rebound in oil output to 7.3% yoy and non-oil activity. |
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Global EM Weekly is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 4, 2026.
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