Report published September 23, 2026

FX View: Making the Case for a Stronger Krona – Société Générale FX Strategy

Société Générale · September 23, 2026

Societe Generale recommends short GBP/SEK positioning ahead of imminent central bank decisions from the Riksbank, SNB, and Norges Bank. The Swedish Krona is expected to gain support from superior consensus GDP growth forecasts of 2.2% in 2026 and 2027 and expected rate hikes starting in November.

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Finvaulta summarizes Société Générale's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Short GBP/SEK is an appealing trade ahead of upcoming central bank meetings, with the Swedish Krona poised to benefit most from central bank decisions.
2.The market prices a 90% probability of a Riksbank rate hike in November and another hike in Q1 2027, backed by superior Swedish GDP growth forecasts (2.2% in both 2026 and 2027).
3.Global excess savings that previously supported US outperformance are shrinking, though US returns remain relatively attractive for now.

Making the case for a stronger Krona
European PMIs (and rates) favour a slightly softer pound

Report data

European PMIs (and rates) favour a slightly softer pound

Metric	Estimate	Context
Riksbank November Rate Hike Implied Probability	90%	Market pricing for a Riksbank rate hike in November.
Consensus GDP Growth Forecast (Sweden)	2.2%	Consensus forecast for Sweden 2026 GDP growth, leading European economies.
Consensus GDP Growth Forecast (Sweden)	2.2%	Consensus forecast for Sweden 2027 GDP growth.
Consensus GDP Growth Forecast (Switzerland)	1.3%	Consensus GDP growth forecast for Switzerland in 2026.
Consensus GDP Growth Forecast (UK)	1.2%	Consensus GDP growth forecast for UK in 2026.