Report published September 4, 2026

August 2026 US Employment Situation: Labor Market Rebound & Fed Policy Outlook

Société Générale · September 4, 2026

US nonfarm payrolls rebounded by +162k in August with positive revisions to prior months, keeping 3-month job growth above the breakeven rate needed to stabilize unemployment. With the unemployment rate steady at 4.1% and participation rising, the labor market remains stable and attention shifts to upcoming August CPI and PPI prints for FOMC rate cues.

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Finvaulta summarizes Société Générale's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Nonfarm payrolls expanded by +162k in August, substantially beating expectations, with net upward revisions of +55k over the prior two months lifting the 3-month moving average to 71k.
2.The 3-month average payroll pace (71k) has surpassed the estimated breakeven range (20k–60k) required to stabilize unemployment, suggesting the unemployment rate could drift lower if maintained.
3.The headline unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% while labor force participation rose to 61.6%, supported by 569k employment growth out of a 720k surge in the labor force.

On Our Minds
August 2026 Employment Situation: Bouncing Back
Underlying NFP Growth Back Above Breakeven Paces
Breadth of Payrolls Growth Across Sectors Expanded
Composition Corrected AHE Slowed Notably Since May
The Unemployment Rate Trend Drifting Down
Total Unemployment Declines Outpace Declines in Inflows
CROSS ASSET RESEARCH – ECONOMICS

Report data

Underlying NFP Growth Back Above Breakeven Paces

Metric	Estimate	Context
Nonfarm Payrolls Change	162 k	August NFP increased by 162k, exceeding consensus (55k) and SG forecast (70k)
3-Month Average Payrolls Change	71 k	Three-month average payrolls rose to 71k from 38k in July, moving above the breakeven rate of 20k-60k
Unemployment Rate	4.1%	Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% (4.141% in 3-digit terms vs 4.090% in July)
Labor Force Participation Rate	61.6%	Participation rate bounced back to 61.6% from 61.4% in July
Average Hourly Earnings Growth	0.3 % m/m	Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y