Report published September 28, 2026
Sweden 360: Rate Hikes Are Coming – SEB Strategy & Economic Research
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB · September 28, 2026
SEB outlines a hawkish turn from the Riksbank, which held its policy rate at 1.75% but paved the way for three rate hikes to 2.50% by May 2027. In response, SEB takes profit on long 10Y SGB asset swaps, recommends receiving 1Y1Y Stibor vs ESTR, and dials back short SEK positions against EUR and NOK.
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Finvaulta summarizes Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Riksbank held rates at 1.75% but initiated a hawkish pivot; SEB now forecasts three hikes in November 2026, February 2027, and May 2027 to reach 2.50%.
- 2.Riksbank tightening risks undermining economic growth and reigniting real estate worries, as 80% of Swedish mortgages have floating rates and debt duration remains short.
- 3.Tactical rates recommendation: Take profit on long 10Y Swedish Government Bonds (SGB) on asset swap (ASW) at +19bps, and receive 1Y1Y Stibor vs ESTR targeting +15bps.
Table of Contents
- Macro highlights
- Rates highlights
- FX highlights
- SEB Market Views Summary
- Upcoming Data and Events
- Riksbank: Market pricing and SEB View
- SEB Macro View Summary
- Standard charts
- SEB Surprise Index – Sweden macro
- FX: Factor drivers
- FX: Technical indicators
- FX: EUR/SEK
- FX: USD/SEK
- FX: NOK/SEK
- FX: Forecasts
- FX: Hedge optimization – Forward points & option implied volatility
- Rates: Positioning – SEB CTA model
- Rates: Excess liquidity, money market spreads
- Rates: SGB issuance & Riksbank holdings
- Rates: Policy setting
- Rates: Premia
- Rates: Curve
- Rates: SGBs
- Rates: Covereds
Report data
Riksbank signals three hikes over coming year — as of September 28, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Riksbank Policy Rate | 1.75% | Riksbank kept policy rate unchanged at 1.75% in September. |
| SEB Terminal Policy Rate Forecast | 2.50% | SEB forecasts rate hikes in Nov 2026, Feb 2027, and May 2027 to reach 2.50%. |
| Riksbank 2027 Peak Policy Rate Path | 2.43% | Riksbank rate path peak raised in the September Monetary Policy Report. |
| Sweden Share of Floating Rate Mortgages | 80% | Proportion of Swedish household mortgages on floating interest rates. |
| Sweden Q2 GDP Growth | 1.6 % q/q | Swedish economic activity rebounded strongly in Q2 2026. |
Reports in this series
Sweden 360 is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 28, 2026.
- Sep 15Sweden 360 260915
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