Financial Forecasts

Latest edition · October 6, 2026

FinancialForecasts

SEB's Financial Forecasts report provides baseline market projections for major central bank policy rates, sovereign bond curves, IRS swap rates, foreign exchange pairs, and energy commodities through 2028. It projects peak interest rates in early 2027 followed by gradual monetary easing, declining energy prices, and EUR appreciation.

Published on October 6, 2026, SEB's Financial Forecasts report outlines key multi-year macroeconomic projections across global fixed income, FX, and commodities markets. Central banks including the Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England, and Riksbank are expected to reach cyclical peaks in their policy rates between late 2026 and mid-2027 before lowering rates through 2028. Benchmark 10-year sovereign yields across the US, Germany, the UK, Sweden, and Norway are anticipated to drift lower alongside easing monetary policy. Additionally, EUR/USD is expected to rise toward 1.21 by Q3 2027, while Brent crude and European natural gas prices are projected to decline steadily through 2028.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Central banks are projected to adjust policy rates in the near term before initiating easing cycles by late 2027 and 2028, with the Federal Reserve peaking at 4.25% before declining to 3.50% by Q4 2028.
• 2.ECB deposit rate is projected to climb to 3.00% by Q1 2027 and hold through Q4 2027 before dropping to 2.25% in Q4 2028.
• 3.The US Dollar is expected to weaken against the Euro over the forecast horizon, with EUR/USD projected to rise from 1.13 to 1.21 by Q3 2027.

What this series covers

• Central banks
• 2Y Gov
• 10Y Gov
• Commodities
• FX
• Cross rates
• Germany
• Sweden
• Denmark
• United States
• Norway
• United Kingdom
• 10y spread vs. Germany (constant mat govt yield)

Edition archive

• FinancialForecasts

  October 6, 2026

• FinancialForecasts

  September 22, 2026

• FinancialForecasts

  July 14, 2026

• FinancialForecasts

  June 16, 2026