China Tracker

Latest edition · September 24, 2026

SEBChinaTracker 09252026

Presidents Xi and Trump agreed to extend the US-China trade truce by two months to 10 January 2026, averting near-term tariff risks and establishing talks through December. While underlying friction over rare earths, purchase commitments, and Taiwan persists, both sides are prioritizing stability.

At their latest summit, Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump prioritized stability by agreeing to a two-month extension of the trade truce until 10 January 2026, locking in two additional negotiating rounds through December. Although China's bilateral trade surplus with the US has fallen back to 2017 levels, its overall USD 1.2 trillion surplus in 2025 highlights strong export diversification. Washington continues to press Beijing over lagging critical mineral exports and agricultural/aircraft purchase commitments, but both administrations are actively managing sensitive flashpoints—such as deferring Taiwan arms deliveries—to keep the door open for tariff relief on USD 30 billion of non-sensitive goods.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.The US and China extended their trade truce by two months to 10 January 2026, averting immediate tariff escalations and setting two more rounds of talks through December.
• 2.Chinese rare earth exports to the US remain more than 25% below pre-export control levels, keeping US pressure on Beijing regarding critical minerals and purchase pledges.
• 3.China has diversified its export base away from the US, posting a USD 1.2 trillion overall trade surplus in 2025 despite bilateral US trade returning to 2017 levels.

What this series covers

• Keeping The Truce, One Extension At A Time
• Recent Developments
• Macroeconomic Tracker
• Forecasts

Edition archive

• SEBChinaTracker 09252026

  September 24, 2026

• SEBChinaTracker 08272026

  August 27, 2026

• SEBChinaTracker 06052026

  July 1, 2026