Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB
Report published August 26, 2026
Iran War Chartpack Week 26: Economic Warfare, Strait of Hormuz Dynamics, and Energy Scenarios
Source and citation context
- Report date
- August 26, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 26, 2026
Authors / editors: Erik Meyersson (Chief Emerging Markets Strategist)
Finvaulta summarizes Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Weekly UpdateCommoditiesEquitiesFXEnergyIndustrials
SEB's Week 26 Iran War update analyzes the US pivot from military action to economic sanctions amid depleted munitions and forward base damage. The analysis highlights high risks of renewed conflict with a 3-month scenario-weighted Brent crude price of $95.5/bbl compared to current pricing of $83.6/bbl.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The US has shifted strategy from direct kinetic military strikes to non-kinetic and economic pressure against Iran, driven by munitions depletion, logistics constraints, and damaged Persian Gulf base infrastructure.
- 2.Sanctions rollouts dubbed 'economic D-Day' have targeted shipping and crypto networks but remain limited in coercive bite without confronting Iran's primary trade partners such as China.
- 3.SEB calculates a 3-month scenario-weighted implied Brent crude price of $95.5/bbl versus a current market price of $83.6/bbl, assigning a 55% probability to prolonged/renewed conflict scenarios.
Table of Contents
- War & Politics
- Growing impediments to US military action in the Middle East
- Sanctions as war by other means
- Dynamics & What to Watch: Escalation risks
- Goals and strategies in the 2026 Iran War
- Nordic Outlook
- What do prediction markets say about the conflict?
- US opinion polls show growing pressures on the incumbent
- Scenarios: The Iran War in Three Months
- Iran: Resilient Under Pressure
- Iran – Record-high inflation and falling exchange rate
- Iran undergoing its seventh currency crisis since 2016
- Who runs Iran now?
- Political system of the Islamic Republic of Iran
- A New Supreme Leader I: Mojtaba Khamenei
- A New Supreme Leader II: Influential clerics and also-rans
- Is there an alternative to the regime?
- Has the killing of Iranian leaders made the regime more hardline?
- Market Overview
- IMF WEO April 2026: significant revisions for MENA and EM
- Market pricing of change in Dec 2026 policy rates (bps)
- Geopolitical risk and markets
- Commodities
- Chokepoints and alleviators
- Key energy facilities in and around the Strait of Hormuz
- World Maritime Oil Chokepoints in Q2 2026
- Physical and paper oil prices diverge
- Global Oil Markets Dashboard
- Brent front-month futures price around selected dates
- Oil volatility has receded but remains elevated
- EIA: Hormuz constraints persist, disruptions last into 2027
- Oil & Gas futures curves
- Crude oil & product prices
- SEB Commodities Monthly (30 April)
- Supply Chains
- Shipping
- Supply Chains Disrupted by Conflict (as of August 12th)
- Fertilizers
- Petrochemical value chain
- Feedstocks and Petrochemicals
- Petrochemical and plastics prices
- PMIs and Supply Pressures I
- PMIs and Supply Pressures II
- PMIs and Supply Pressures III:
- Inflation: Cost-push pressures seep into energy inflation rates
- Supply chain pressures intensify
- German industries' supply constraints have eased somewhat, as have expected downstream price hikes
- Equities
- FX
- EM FX Spot Rates
- EM FX Volatility, spreads relative to historical volatility, and risk reversals
- Credit risk
- Credit: Sovereign risk has receded since March peaks
- CDS spreads during Iran War, tariff shock, Ukraine invasion, pandemic, Eurocrisis and GFC (bps)
- Appendix
- The Donkey Doctrine Ate the Carter Doctrine
- Expended US Munitions May Take Years To Replenish
- Iranian attacks caused significant damage to US military bases
- Trump's Lessfires Have Failed to Stabilize the Middle East
- Embargo on exports imply storage and productions constraints
- Counting the costs of war in Iran
- Further reading on the Iran War from SEB Strategy & Economic Research
- Disclaimer
Report data
Iran War Scenario Outcomes and Implied Brent oil price in 3 months — as of August 26, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Scenario-implied 3-month Brent crude oil price | 95.5 USD/bbl | SEB probabilistic weighted-average oil price based on 6 geopolitical scenario outcomes compared to market price of $83.6/bbl. |
| Iran Headline CPI Inflation | 88.0 % YoY | Annual headline inflation rate in Iran as food inflation reached 128%. |
| Regional Oil Production Shut-ins | 5.5 million b/d | EIA estimate of crude oil shut-ins across the Middle East due to conflict disruptions. |
| Estimated Tomahawk Missile Return to Prewar Inventory | 2030 year | Estimated replenishment timeline for 1,000+ expended Tomahawk missiles in the Iran War. |
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Authors / Editors
Erik Meyersson · Chief Emerging Markets Strategist
Reported Data Context
- Scenario-implied 3-month Brent crude oil price: 95.5 USD/bbl (3-month horizon) · Source: SEB
- Iran Headline CPI Inflation: 88.0 % YoY (2026-07) · Source: Statistical Center of Iran, Macrobond, SEB
- Regional Oil Production Shut-ins: 5.5 million b/d (2026-07) · Source: EIA
- Estimated Tomahawk Missile Return to Prewar Inventory: 2030 year (Late 2030–early 2031) · Source: CSIS, SEB
Securities
SPXBrent Crude OilWTI Crude OilTTFMarkit EM CDX Index
Themes
US pivot to non-kinetic and secondary sanctions warfare against IranStrait of Hormuz transit disruption and energy price upside risksDepletion of Western munition stockpiles and erosion of Middle East deterrence
Regions
Middle EastNorth AmericaEuropeIranUnited StatesIsrael