Report published September 24, 2026
China Tracker: Keeping the Truce, One Extension at a Time – Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB · September 24, 2026
Presidents Xi and Trump agreed to extend the US-China trade truce by two months to 10 January 2026, averting near-term tariff risks and establishing talks through December. While underlying friction over rare earths, purchase commitments, and Taiwan persists, both sides are prioritizing stability.
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Finvaulta summarizes Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The US and China extended their trade truce by two months to 10 January 2026, averting immediate tariff escalations and setting two more rounds of talks through December.
- 2.Chinese rare earth exports to the US remain more than 25% below pre-export control levels, keeping US pressure on Beijing regarding critical minerals and purchase pledges.
- 3.China has diversified its export base away from the US, posting a USD 1.2 trillion overall trade surplus in 2025 despite bilateral US trade returning to 2017 levels.
Table of Contents
- Keeping The Truce, One Extension At A Time
- Recent Developments
- Macroeconomic Tracker
- Forecasts
Report data
Chart 1: Bilateral trade surplus with the US declined to 2017 levels as exports shifted elsewhere — as of September 24, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| China overall trade surplus | 1.2 USD trillion | China's surplus demonstrating that its export machine remains strong despite US decoupling. |
| China rare earth exports to US vs pre-control average | -25% | Chinese exports of critical minerals remain over 25% below volumes prior to March 2025 export controls. |
| China capital injection into banks and insurers | 300 RMB billion | Capital infusion financed by Ministry of Finance special bonds across eight institutions. |
| US meat and soybean exports to China | 5.8 USD billion | Purchases toward the annual USD 17 billion farm product commitment agreed in Beijing. |
| USD/CNY exchange rate | 6.71 | Current exchange rate on 24 September 2026. |
Reports in this series
China Tracker is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 24, 2026.
Part of the China Tracker series — view all 3 editions
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