GC Research Reports

Institutional research for the week ending August 14, 2026, highlights significant macroeconomic crosscurrents driven by cooling economic data and divergent Treasury yield dynamics. Softer July CPI and PPI figures, paired with a 0.6% contraction in retail sales, catalyzed a sharp repricing of Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, pushing the implied probability of a September hike down to 32%. Consequently, short-end yields declined, with the 2-year Treasury yield falling 2.5 bps to settle at 4.17%. In contrast, long-end yields faced upward pressure from rising energy costs as WTI crude moved back above $82 per barrel, alongside fiscal supply concerns stemming from a $432 billion monthly deficit. This pushed the 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.69% and the 30-year yield to 5.26%. Looking ahead, key catalysts expected to drive market trajectory include the July FOMC minutes, preliminary PMI releases, upcoming housing data, and a $16 billion 20-year Treasury auction.