Report published August 28, 2026
SEB Week Ahead: US Labour Market, Eurozone Inflation, and Central Bank Outlook (August 28, 2026)
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- SEB
- Report date
- August 28, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 28, 2026
Authors / editors: Cecilia Kohonen, Nils Jerveland
Finvaulta summarizes SEB's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
SEB previews the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026, highlighting US labour market data (non-farm payrolls, JOLTS, ISM) and the Euro area August flash HICP inflation release. Policy decisions from the RBNZ and Bank of Canada, as well as Nordic manufacturing PMIs and Norwegian housing data, will also be in focus.
Key Takeaways
- 1.US non-farm payrolls are forecast to bounce back slightly to 40k in August after a surprise decline in July, but hiring remains subdued and is not generating inflation pressure.
- 2.Euro area flash headline HICP is expected to pick up to 3.4% y/y in August driven by higher energy prices, while core inflation is forecast to hold steady at 2.5% y/y.
- 3.The RBNZ is expected to hike its official cash rate by 25 bps to 2.75%, while the Bank of Canada is anticipated to hold its policy rate at 2.25% by looking through tariff-induced price pressures.
Table of Contents
- US labour market and euro area inflation in focus
- Forecasts & publications
- Key Economic Indicators & Events: 31 Aug – 6 Sep, 2026
- NOR: Norges Bank's FX purchases (Sep)
- SWE: PMI manufacturing (Jul)
- Euro area: HICP, flash estimate (Aug)
- US: ISM manufacturing (Aug)
- US: JOLTS (July)
- NZD: RBNZ official cash rate decision
- CAN: Bank of Canada rate decision
- NOR: Existing home prices (Aug)
- US: ISM services (Aug)
- US: Nonfarm payrolls (Aug)
- Disclaimer
Report data
US labour market: Fewer jobs & lower unemployment rate — as of August 28, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US Nonfarm Payrolls Change | 40 thousands | SEB forecast for August US nonfarm payroll employment change following -23k in July. |
| Euro Area Flash HICP Inflation | 3.4 % y/y | SEB forecast for August headline Euro area HICP inflation vs 2.9% in July. |
| RBNZ Official Cash Rate | 2.75% | SEB forecast for RBNZ OCR rate hike (+25 bps). |
| Bank of Canada Target Rate | 2.25% | SEB forecast for BoC policy rate decision (hold). |
| Sweden Manufacturing PMI | 56.5 index points | SEB forecast for Swedbank/SILF Sweden Manufacturing PMI. |
Reports in this series
Week Ahead is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 28, 2026.
Part of the Week Ahead series — view all 5 editions
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- US Nonfarm Payrolls Change: 40 thousands (2026-08) · Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
- Euro Area Flash HICP Inflation: 3.4 % y/y (2026-08) · Source: Eurostat
- RBNZ Official Cash Rate: 2.75 % (2026-09-02) · Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
- Bank of Canada Target Rate: 2.25 % (2026-09-02)
- Sweden Manufacturing PMI: 56.5 index points (2026-08) · Source: Swedbank
Securities
Themes
Regions
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