SEB
Report published September 28, 2026
Trend in Retail Sales Remain Flat: SEB Norwegian Retail Sales Analysis
SEB · September 28, 2026
Norwegian retail sales excluding autos rose 0.6% m/m in August 2026 after dropping 0.7% m/m in July, leaving the underlying trend flat. Depressed consumer confidence continues to weigh on spending, consistent with Norges Bank's downgraded 2026 consumption growth forecast of 0.8% y/y.
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Finvaulta summarizes SEB's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Norwegian retail sales ex-autos rebounded 0.6% m/m in August after falling 0.7% m/m in July, showing a sideways trend with little net contribution to Q3 household consumption.
- 2.Depressed consumer confidence and an increased savings rate represent downside risks to consumption growth, though strong real wage growth and low unemployment mitigate these risks.
- 3.Norges Bank lowered its 2026 consumption growth forecast to 0.8% y/y in its September MPR, viewing overall data as consistent with below-normal and drifting capacity utilization.
Table of Contents
- Details
- Implications Norges Bank:
Report data
Norwegian retail sales
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Retail sales ex. autos | 0.6% | Rebounded following a 0.7% decline in July |
| Retail sales ex. autos (annual rate) | -1.4% | Year-on-year rate remained negative, albeit less so than previous months |
| Private car registrations | 4.4% | Indicates a monthly increase for auto sales |
| Norges Bank consumption growth forecast for 2026 | 0.8% | Revised down in the Sep26 Monetary Policy Report |
| Norges Bank consumption growth forecast for 2027 | 2.6% | Projected acceleration driven by higher purchasing power |
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Authors / Editors
Marthe Eide