Report published September 24, 2026

Surprisingly Hawkish - November Hike Likely: SEB Riksbank Policy Rate Analysis

SEB · September 24, 2026

The Riksbank maintained its policy rate at 1.75% but delivered a surprisingly hawkish path indicating an impending rate hike in November 2026 and policy rates nearing 2.50% by mid-2027. In response, SEB expects to revise its forecast to include hikes in November 2026, February 2027, and May 2027.

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Finvaulta summarizes SEB's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The Riksbank kept the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% but significantly raised its projected rate path across the forecast horizon.
2.The updated rate path indicates an impending rate hike in November 2026, two hikes by March 2027, and rates reaching approximately 2.50% by mid-2027.
3.SEB plans to upgrade its policy rate forecast to pencil in a November hike followed by additional increases in February and May 2027.

Surprisingly hawkish - November hike likely

Report data

Riksbank Policy Rate Path: September MPR vs June MPR — as of September 24, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
Current Policy Rate	1.75%	Riksbank policy rate on effective date 2026-09-23
Riksbank September MPR Projected Policy Rate	1.91%	Projected policy rate path for November 2026
Riksbank September MPR Projected Policy Rate	2.43%	Projected policy rate path at end-2027
Market Priced Policy Rate	1.95%	Market pricing for the November 2026 Riksbank meeting