Report published August 17, 2026
SEB Commodities Strategy: Stay Long or Buy Crude Oil on Dips Ahead of US Midterms
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- SEB
- Report date
- August 17, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 17, 2026
Authors / editors: Bjarne Schieldrop (Chief Analyst Commodities)
Finvaulta summarizes SEB's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Brent crude rose 6% last week to $88.52/b as hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz faded and the US-Iran ceasefire ended. SEB recommends staying long or buying crude on dips over the next 2-3 months into the US midterm elections.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Investors should stay long or buy crude oil on dips over the next 2-3 months leading into the US midterm elections on November 3.
- 2.Current oil supply balances are offset by ~5 mb/d escaping the Strait of Hormuz and 3 mb/d redirected via Yanbu/Red Sea, both of which Iran can disrupt.
- 3.The US-Iran ceasefire is officially over, and US sanctions are unlikely to force Iranian compliance given limited US military leverage.
Table of Contents
- Stay long or buy-on-dips in the run-up to the US midterm elections on 3 Nov
- Brent rose 6% last week as hopes for a reopening faded.
- The ceasefire between the US and Iran is today officially over.
- Economic sanctions isn't going to change things.
- Netanyahu is not sitting still and bombed Lebanon over the weekend.
- For the time being there is enough crude oil in the market
- Back of the envelope calculations of how the loss of 14 mb/d of crude normally passing through the SoH are currently compensated by different elements.
- Helps to explain why Brent hasn't rallied to $150/b or higher.
- Two very important elements.
- Iran is controlling them both. A powerful threat to Trump's midterm elections.
- Stay long or buy-on-dips over the coming 2-3 months to the US midterm election.
Report data
Back of the envelope calculations of how the loss of 14 mb/d of crude normally passing through the SoH are currently compensated by different elements. — as of August 17, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude Price Weekly Change | 6.0% | Brent rose 6% last week as hopes for an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded. |
| Brent Crude Weekly Close Price | 88.52 USD/b | Traded in a range of $81.5 - $90.07/b before closing at $88.52/b. |
| Dated Brent Spot Price YTD Average | 91.5 USD/b | Dated Brent spot price average YTD. |
| Loss of crude supply if SoH is fully closed | -14.0 mb/d | Estimated loss of crude normally passing through the Strait of Hormuz. |
| SoH crude escape volume | 5.0 mb/d | Estimated volume of oil currently managing to exit the Strait of Hormuz. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Brent Crude Price Weekly Change: 6.0 % (Prior week ending Aug 14, 2026) · Source: SEB
- Brent Crude Weekly Close Price: 88.52 USD/b (Week ending Aug 14, 2026) · Source: SEB
- Dated Brent Spot Price YTD Average: 91.5 USD/b (2026 YTD) · Source: SEB
- Loss of crude supply if SoH is fully closed: -14.0 mb/d (August 2026) · Source: SEB
- SoH crude escape volume: 5.0 mb/d (August 2026) · Source: SEB
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