Swedish inflation

Latest edition · September 15, 2026

Updated forecast after August 2026 09 15

SEB has revised its Swedish inflation forecast following August data, noting sharp increases in energy prices that delay anticipated declines. Consequently, SEK weakness and indirect pass-through effects are expected to result in slightly higher CPIF ex energy in 2027.

Following the August inflation report, SEB updated its Swedish inflation outlook. While energy futures continue to indicate significant eventual price declines, the sharp run-up in energy prices over the past month has delayed the timeline compared to earlier projections. Combined with a weaker Swedish krona (SEK) and slightly stronger indirect effects, SEB now expects CPIF excluding energy to be slightly higher in 2027.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Energy prices have surged over the past month, delaying the previously anticipated decline implied by futures.
• 2.A weaker Swedish krona (SEK) and greater indirect price effects are projected to push CPIF ex energy slightly higher in 2027.

What this series covers

• Updated forecast after August

Edition archive

• Updated forecast after August 2026 09 15

  September 15, 2026

• August inflation slows more than expected 2026 09 07

  September 7, 2026

• Higher inflation in May after a string of downside surprises - 2026-06-04

  June 4, 2026